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Comment: Re:Just in time for another record cold winter (Score 1) 186

If it's all global, why does ice melting in the arctic count as evidence of GW, but ice *expanding* in Antarctica not count as counter-evidence?

Because a simple analysis like that is seldom adequate. Scientists who have looked at the increase in Antarctic sea ice have found several reasons that combine to cause the increase. First the circumpolar winds have grown stronger apparently because of the ozone hole over Antarctica. That pushes the existing sea ice around more opening polynyas that subsequently refreeze increasing the ice area. Second global warming causes the ice sitting on the continent to melt and also increased precipitation which causes the water on the surface to freshen making it easier to freeze. Finally the fresher water is less dense than the warmer saltier water under it so the ocean stratifies and the the warmer saltier water is prevented from rising to the surface reducing ice melt from it.

Comment: Re:Please See: (Score 1) 630

by riverat1 (#47933211) Attached to: Extent of Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches Record Levels

If your poorly constructed argument were correct, then the Earth's temperature would be increasing year upon year. However it is not, as the warmest year in recent records is 1998. We know from the fossil record that increased carbon dioxide levels are a response to global warming, not a driver

A more complete accounting of the energy balance of the Earth's geosystems includes not only the atmosphere but the oceans, land and biosphere. Natural variation will affect how energy is distributed between those areas. So even though surface atmospheric temperature may not be rising as steeply lately (and choosing 1998 is an extreme cherry pick) the oceans (where over 90% of the energy from global warming goes) have continued to warm up. Given the different heat capacity between air and water it doesn't take much of a change in ocean warming to have a major effect on atmospheric warming.

Comment: Re:Warmists never bother debating anymore (Score 1) 630

by riverat1 (#47919927) Attached to: Extent of Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches Record Levels

Correct, however for those who do the maths, energy captured due to CO2 absorption (all else ignored) has a T^3 factor. Blackbody radiation (the heat emitted to space) has a T^4 component. When you do the maths, temperature rise is logrithmic with CO2 proportion. Basically, temperature rise is quoted for a doubling in CO2. Say 1.2 degrees - to get another 1.2 degrees, you need to double again etc.

Now to try to make it scarier, you can introduce feedback - so the hotter it gets, the rate of increase get faster to offset the logrithmic CO2/T. The trouble is that whilst the temperature increase due to CO2 has been tested time and again, and uses sound physics principles, the feedback is more or less guess work. Models are tweaked with new feedback terms until they match previous years...

You were doing so well then you just sailed right off the tracks. On what basis do you claim that feedback is more or less guesswork? Models are not tweaked to match previous years. Any adjustments are made on the basis of better understanding of the physics involved.

Comment: Re:Time for new terminology (Score 1) 630

by riverat1 (#47918139) Attached to: Extent of Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches Record Levels

Given that natural sinks of CO2 absorb enough of it that the year to year rise in atmospheric CO2 is only about half of total human emissions per year it's your numbers don't add up. If those natural sinks didn't operate as they do the year to year rise in CO2 would be over 10 ppm per year or over 100 ppm per decade.

My point about cyanide wasn't that CO2 would directly kill anyone but that just because there is a small number doesn't mean the effect is small. There is no doubt that there have been some excess deaths around the world due to the effects of global warming caused by increased CO2. Absolutely no one believes that CO2 should be entirely eliminated from the atmosphere which would be impossible to do in any case. We just need to stop causing the level to rise.

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." - Bert Lantz