The lower chamber of the parliament just rejected the three strike law in a surprise upset. The opposition took advantage of the very low attendance by the majority party: a dozen opposition MPs showed up at the last minute, preventing the majority from gathering its troops. The vote failed 15 to 21 (there are 577 members in the lower chamber).
The law is not rejected for good, because the government can (and probably will) push for a second reading in both chambers, and it has a large enough majority to get it through. But this event is going to push the issue into the spotlight, and may also allow the European Parliament to once again vote its opposition to the principle (amendment 46 to the Telecom Package), while the opposition gains team.
Indeed, just a few days ago, a few prominent actors and directors such as Catherine Deneuve or Victoria Abril signed an open letter opposing the law, thereby disproving the main talking point of the proponents: not all artists are united behind Sarkozy-Universal.
This is now. Later is later.