Exactly. Even if consumers stop paying for software, businesses will still need software, and they are much more likely to stay willing to pay.

The probability that a fish species can evolve into a horse species can only be 1 or 0, since it either can or it can't (hint: it's not zero). However the probability that a fish species will evolve into a horse species is quite small, but again not zero. Also, since we don't have the technology to accurately observe extrasolar planets, we have no idea the likelihood that other planets could support intelligent life; however, given the size of the universe, I would expect it to actually be fairly large that there is at least one other planet similar to ours.

The pipe dream here is solar space power. It's an absurd concept that will never be profitable compared to Earth-based utilities.

I wouldn't say that. It may be a concept that will never be profitable in our lifetimes, but I'd hesitate to say it will never be profitable. When we've already colonized the moon, Venus, and Mars, our power needs very well may exceed the ability of the planets to support, and that's when we move to a Class II civilization. Of course, since we are far from even a Class I civilization, you are definitely correct that attempting to use the sun to provide us with our power needs is a pipe dream at this time.

This is when I like to quote George Orwell:

Thus, for example, tanks, battleships and bombing planes are inherently tyrannical weapons, while rifles, muskets, long-bows, and hand-grenades are inherently democratic weapons. A complex weapon makes the strong stronger, while a simple weapon -- so long as there is no answer to it -- gives claws to the weak.