Reality has a pronounced liberal bias.
I'm a liberal (well, leftist libertarian) and I really hate hearing people say that. It's an easy thing to say, and an easy thing to believe, which is why everyone thinks the facts support their views. Please just don't say it, it's cheap. It walls off the possibility of being wrong and being able to change your opinion based on the facts, which is central to classical Liberalism. The correct way to put it is that "Liberalism has a pronounced reality bias."
It doesn't work that way. in has never worked that way, and it can't work that way. It would require complete isolation. no import, exports or travel.
Please expand upon this. You've only left us with an assertion but no basis by which we can test it.
It depends on what you're predicting 50% of. If you predict 50% of the winners of a horse race, then half the time you're choosing the right horse. You could probably make a living at the track. On the other hand, if you predict 0% of the winners, you'll go broke betting on the other 9 horses all the time.
Now, instead of 10 horses, imagine hundreds of companies traded on the stock market...
Bubbles are not like coins, there are no fluctuations in the state of "headness" or "tailness".
Get hold of portable property. -- Charles Dickens, "Great Expectations"