This might be a cynical view but here's how I see it panning out:

1 - US sits backs and waits for either private investors or NASA to make a break through the bureaucracy. Unfortunately nothing happens for at least 10 years.

2 - China / India / Delete As Appropriate make a mad dash on their manned space program, i.e. nationalism and all that.

3 - US gets annoyed by 2 and public opinion now gets interested.

4 - US responds and spend serious GDP. Most likely wins.

5 - GOTO 1

The system seems setup to respond to outside competition, and needs something to fight against and beat. We're just in a period where the other competitors are slowly gearing up that's all.

Hi

We need an address for your 'Sarcastic Achievement - Level 3' certificate - you'll have to pay postage, but I'm sure you won't mind that, right?

Ned Again
COO - Sarcasm Society
Level 5 Sarcasm Ninja (certified)