I've just run the simulator in TFA on my known variables for the last year (I got diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and had to make some very controlled, measured, changes to my lifestyle which got me back to being healthy).
It said I'd have lost over 30Kg over that year. I actually lost just under 10Kg, but went from being unable to run for more than 100m to completing a 12Km fun-run and confidently entering for a half-marathon in 3 months' time. I also lost about 6inches off my waistline (as in I gained a waist!).
Also, humans are not controlled by variables and equations. The equations describe an average person, who doesn't exist. They're useful approximations, but in the end just approximations.
Glad to hear of your success. Agreed that the simulator is flawed. As one who actively tracked caloric intake, improved food quality, and increased activity in the process of losing over 150lbs in the past 5 years, the simulator's assumptions about caloric intake are way off for me. The simulator's suggested "lose weight" calorie level is my personal "maintain weight" calorie level.