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Comment Decoys anyone? (Score 1) 252

Strange that nobody has mentioned it yet, but I guess it's a good bet that there will be hundreds of red balloons rising on Dec 5. Besides the obvious "because we can" motive, if you are after the prize money, it makes sense to launch a few decoys the location of which is only known to yourself. Even a few of those and the contest is no longer about spotting the balloons, but about picking the correct 10 out of the confirmed sightings.

It would have made a lot more sense to launch the balloons before announcing the challenge.

Comment Re:Please don't. (Score 1) 300

You have it the wrong way around. The only job of those "morons" was and is to provide a pseudo-scientific fig leaf to the decision makers - this is their only purpose. Economics provides a huge repository of established (and often contradictory) theories to choose from and is fuzzy enough, so that the choice of parameters, input data and model relations provide more than enough wiggle room to make a model for any desired outcome while avoiding any "gross negligence" a judge could pinpoint. And it's a job they did very well indeed, as you would think that after having destroyed trillions of wealth form customers and third parties, many Wallstreet executives would be in jail now rather than paying themselves bonuses from the bailout money they received.

Comment Goodhart's law (Score 1) 300

This cannot possibly work because "any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes" and Danielsson's corollary "A risk model breaks down when used for regulatory purposes".

The very moment any model - regardless how cleverly designed - is published and started to be used to make money on a significant scale, peolple will start gaming the system. This will necessarily destroy any information carrying correlation. Why? Because, as it is impossible to generally directly predict economic success except after the fact any more than it is possible generally to predict whether a given program will halt or not w/o running it, you have to use proxies. These proxies are always easier to manipulate on purpose than they are by influencing them as a side effect to a different purpose.

A good example is the number of papers published as a measure for scientific excellence and predictor of future academic success. A good indicator - but only as long a nobody counts them and uses it to direct money flows. The moment you do that, researches will see publication as an end in itself, and not as a byproduct of successful research and the measure will lose most of its predictive power.

In economics, it's even worse, as money made on speculation spends exactly the same as money earned by building value: Charts of stock prices would be an excellent predictor as market prices in theory should aggregate all available information - but only as long nobody uses them to estimate value or predict future prices. With chart analysis used by many market actors and companies being allowed to manipulate their own stock price (vie buy-backs, option programs, etc.) you get so many artificial feedback effects into the system that they dominate the system's dynamics and the actual signal gets lost in the noise.

Comment What is a reasonable time-frame? (Score 1) 203

A 5 to 10 year time frame seems quite reasonable for a project like this - if anything it's a bit on the tight side; technological revolutions in other industries like manufactoring usually take considerably longer. This is not about migrating a couple of office destops and a server or two - this is about migrating the complete IT infratructure of Germany's third largest city and affects pretty much every piece of software that is currently used in the public sector. Already the interal and external interoperabilty issues (with other administrative bodies, contractors and the public) pose a formidable challenge. And you have to do it as an early adopter in the worst possible environment for change - after all, this is not a "dictatoric" private company but a city government with politics, hidden agendas, entreched formal and (even harder to identify as well to change) informal work flows and bureaucratic procedures, subborn tenured civil servents and legal issues behind every corner. It's in many way's the worst case scenario for Linux migration, a really Herculian task! If you can make it there, then anywhere else will seem trivial by comparison.

Comment This might actually be a good idea IF ... (Score 1) 161

... you do the flight unmanned, don't mind several decades in transit and are able to mothball the station in a way that you can reliably unfreeze and reactivate it after many years in space. That way, you might be able to use low thrust, low energy, solar or nuclear powered high specific impulse ion or plasma drives to haul the station there.

A pioneer mission can then try to reactivate the station and if successful, you already have habitat, life support and scientific equipment in place for subsequent missions. This would be especially useful if fuel production in situ is planned (as with the "Mars Direct" mission plans) so the station can be at least partly resupplied there.

ignatius

Comment Rule of Thumb (Score 1) 550

> The US wasn't the aggressor in the Korean or Vietnam Wars

There are exceptions, but generally, in my book, unless having been directly attacked first, whoever is fighting farther away from home is the aggressor by default.

ignatius

Comment Makes Sense (Score 1) 550

Make perfect sense from the US POV: No other country has more space assets to lose and less foreign space targets to shoot down than the US. Also, no other military is more dependent on an operational space infrastructure to wage war. And of course: reconnaissance favors the attacker - and the US has been the agressor in all military conflicts since Pearl Harbour.

If Obama gets away with this proposal, it would be a major strategic coup - if Russia, China, etc. are stupid enough to fall for the trap (the EU probably is). Otherwise it still makes for a good diplomacy stunt.

Biotech

Submission + - Rare mutation in boy leads to perfect pain-killer

mrcgran writes: "Scientists of the University of Cambridge, after studying a rare genetic mutation in a gene called SCN9A in three Pakistani families whose members were unable to feel any pain at all, are announcing the discovery of a neurotransmitter protein that is being touted as the perfect target for powerful new classes of analgesics and cronic pain therapies. Their results can potentially lead to a complete elimination of pain with no side effects, even in extreme conditions such as heavy injuries, surgery, cancer and arthritis. The paper was published online yesterday in Nature. You may prefer to read the story, the editor's summary or the paper abstract.

From the article: "The study began when doctors in northern Pakistan examined a remarkable group of related families in which several individuals seem entirely unaffected by pain. Their attention was first attracted by one member of the clan, a locally famous boy who performed street theatre involving walking on burning coals and stabbing his arms with knives.""
GNU is Not Unix

Submission + - FSF Pledges $60K to Help Free Ryzom MMORPG

nadamsieee writes: "Back in November Ryzom.org was formed to raise 100K euros to purchase the source code for the Ryzom MMORPG and release it under the GNU General Public License. Ryzom.org had its (first) day in court on December 5th, and in response to a competing offer from a 3rd party, the group has doubled their original goal to 200K euros. Now the Free Software Foundation has stepped in and pledged $60K to the project."
Operating Systems

Submission + - Internet bank deny access to Linux users

splox writes: A recent system upgrade at one of Sweden's pioneer Internet banks, Skandiabanken [skandia.se] has resulted in Linux users being switched off [idg.se] (sorry, only in Swedish) from the service. Bank officials claim that Linux has never been supported, but its use has never the less been accepted. Until yesterday, when customers trying to log in to their bank accounts from Linux computers were met with a note stating that the configuration was not accepted. Although officials regret the inconvenience there seems to be no intention to fix the problem any time soon. The company line is that they're at least very honest with what OSes they support (Mac OS and Windows) and that the demand for Linux support is low. The bank also provides a phone service, which is free for all of their customers, but of course, that is not by far as convenient as using the Internet.
Portables (Games)

Submission + - Sony Caught In the Act

JamieSI writes: "There was a PSP fan blog on the internet which many people suspected was done by Sony, people started digging and doing some research to try and find out if the site was just a marketing campaign or an actual real website done by two fans. Sony has now made a statement which admits they are behind the site.

""Busted. Nailed. Snagged. As many of you have figured out (maybe our speech was a little too funky fresh???), Peter isn't a real hip-hop maven and this site was actually developed by Sony. Guess we were trying to be just a little too clever. From this point forward, we will just stick to making cool products, and use this site to give you nothing but the facts on the PSP" More details here."

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