Comment Re:Great Depression? (Score 5, Insightful) 873
Well written response, but the comment about CDS is not correct.
CDS are nothing but swap contracts or a transfer of incremental value from one party to another. There is 50trn of outstanding notional value in CDS but it isn't an indication of current cash at risk. It is nothing but an insurance contract.
Now, while there was silly insurance contracts written (the cause of the fall in the monoline insurers and AIG) the whole CDS market is not reflective of that. It is quite effective at moving risk from one party to another.
Confidence is at a low because people have realised that debt has accumulated to an unsustainable level. The deleveraging of the economy is painful, and we are lucky that we have good government to manage this process at a slower pace. What caused the great depression was that the deleveraging was not handled at a slower pace and the government (through lack of knowledge) encouraged the voracious repricing of risk at too fast a pace.