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Comment Re:Statistical Literature (Score 1) 127

I'm more interested to know which major character it believes may be dead? Every character is statistically likely to be dead at some point.

Unless of course you take the 'You cannot kill what never lived' point of view.

I think you meant "What is dead can never die". Not only is it a point of view, but it's actually a prayer of the Iron Islanders in GoT.

And yes, they can be killed, too. Just not all at once, it appears.

Comment Re:Americans are smart. (Score 2) 460

Not an anti-vaxxer, not by any means, just saying there are lots of things we think absolutely must have been tested to be completely safe when it turns out that it probably isn't as great for you as you'd like to have thought. That's all.

First, nothing is "completely safe." Everything has a limit beyond which it exceeds the capacity of a human to absorb it. On top of that, no injection or vaccination is ever 100% risk free. There is risk of infection, of allergens, of tainted products, etc. And there are also the risks of adverse side effects in some measure of the population.

People don't really understand statistics. They certainly don't understand a "one in a million" chance, as evinced by the profitability of the lottery. They also don't understand the consequences that result from these decisions.

I think a lot of that comes from a pile of numbers that people can't easily relate. Consider that a vaccine may have a 1:1,000,000 chance of causing the disease it was intended to prevent or causing a debilitating side effect. It may also have a 1:100 chance of causing an inconveniencing side effect. Its primary effect is to confer a 98% level of protection against a disease. The disease has a 20% chance of causing a debilitating condition. Unvaccinated people have a 10% chance of catching the disease. Herd immunity kicks in at an 80% immunization rate, and reduces my chance of getting the disease to 5%. Even though they're all based on probabilities, they're not even using the same units of measure for display. How does a layperson put all those numbers together to make a decision whether or not to immunize their child?

The flip answer is "they don't." Too many people lack the education needed to understand the numbers, to combine them, and to compare them; so they turn to experts. But how do they trust an expert? A few people are willing to claim to be an expert to drive their personal profit or agenda, instead of to serve the truth. And some people will cherry pick their list of experts to align with their agenda. It's the latter that are the corrupting influence, and those are the ones that need to be stopped.

Comment Re:Really, a single oint of failure? (Score 1) 223

The Mythbusters demonstrated it's plausible that driving distances less than 400 miles is faster than flying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

It's almost exactly a 400 mile journey that takes 6 hours.

https://www.google.com/maps/di...

And if you're hauling a month's worth of stuff, or a family, you might not want to stuff it in a single checked bag.

Comment Re:Really, a single oint of failure? (Score 2) 223

This is an AIR traffic control problem, and is not localized to O'Hare airport. They manage all the flights over the entire region. I'm sure they will extend the operations to the surrounding regional centers to make up for the loss, but due to the sheer volume of traffic the Aurora center used to handle, the other centers will need to add a lot of extra staff to deal with it.

I suspect they are temporarily operating with local staff called in for the emergency, but that's not sustainable. They'll likely need to redistribute the Aurora staff to the other centers. It will take several hours for them to all travel to their new assignments. It takes about six hours to drive from the Aurora center to the Farmington center near Minneapolis, and that's not counting going home and packing for an extended stay.

Comment Re:there's an easy solution to this shit. (Score 1) 299

A strong #2? So who was supporting the Laughable Bumblefsck? It seems like a long list of very ignorant people to beware of.

And was your sister unaware of the booze, weed, crack, and even horse(!); the bullying; the thefts; the racism; the homophobia; the perjury; the groping; or the other assaults? Or was she simply glossing over them all in repayment for some preferential treatment that had somehow benefited her?

Comment Re:You know what this means (Score 1) 182

I hear you! Bedrooms should not be lit at night. Black tape and an Xacto knife works great for blocking indicator lights without being too ugly.

But I've had a couple of weird issues with the electronics in our bedroom. Our garage door indicator has a bright green light to indicate the door is closed, and just taping the LED wasn't enough, as the case was semi translucent. I lined the inside of the case with aluminum duct tape to solve that problem. Fortunately, the red LED is a separate component, so it can visibly blink when the garage door is open. It's not something we ignore.

The worst offender I've ever experienced, though, is my Harmony remote with its charging cradle. The remote itself is absolutely brilliant, and is a treat to use. But the charging cradle -- what a piece of shit. There is a large glowing blue ring in the bottom, and it illuminates the entire bedroom if the remote is not in its place. And the cradle itself is stupidly sculpted to match the remote, causing a different problem. Instead of a mechanically positive connection, the curved cradle supports the remote at precisely its center of gravity, allowing it to teeter, and every time it teeters it slips on and off the tiny charging contacts. Of course the remote helpfully signals every time it's made contact with the charging cradle by beeping loudly and backlighting the screen for a few seconds. Our little 15 pound dog scratching herself on the floor nearby will cause enough of a microtremor in the floor to get it to momentarily break contact. If anyone so much as walks near the bedroom, the remote beeps and the lights glow. I have to keep a hefty weight on the stupid remote so we can sleep.

I think it's the contrast between the usability of the remote and the stupidity of the charging cradle that makes it all the more painfully awful.

Comment Re:Yeah sorry, no (Score 3, Informative) 299

The odds of them actually fining a reporter doing anything like reporting are nil. That is clearly not the intent of it, as it has an exception for reporting news. I guess the problem is writing the law in a way that disallows shooting commercials or movies, without creating some objectionable corner cases.

Unless there has actually been any issue with this, it's just another trumped up nonstory that will be inflated to cartoonish proportions in the comments to follow.

To be fair, the wording written in the Forest Service Handbook is incredibly vague, and encompasses all photography, not just commercial or news photography. http://www.fs.fed.us/specialus...

Comment Re:there's an easy solution to this shit. (Score 1) 299

it's all up to you. if you're in the room the next some some retard with too much power makes a suggestion like this, just stab him in the throat with your pen. if we just put down all these fucks before they got too high up in society we'd have a fuckin' utopia by now.

Yeah, a utopia; or at least a caliphate.

Comment Re:Petitions.org... (Score 2) 299

The problem with tripods is not the weight, it's that they might be set up in a place where they block a trail or interfere with access to a display. It's not ordinarily a problem in some places, but they can be in more crowded areas. But placing them in non-disruptive locations is already required in the rules.

Comment Re:Can't help plugging Atwood (Score 1) 410

Just to be pedantic, the Genesis Device and the Death Star were examples of plot devices, not MacGuffins.

A MacGuffin is an specific type of plot device that has two defining tests. First, is it interchangeable with another object? Would the motives of the character be the same regardless of whether the treasure was a ruby necklace, a sack of cash, or a folder of secret papers? Second, does it do anything, and is it ever used in the story?

The briefcase in Pulp Fiction was a classic MacGuffin. It was never spent, only desired. You never even saw the contents of the briefcase, simply a bright golden glow that was cast whenever the case was opened, and the avarice on every face that was exposed to it. In contrast, the Genesis Device was not only used in the story, it was central to the resurrection of Spock! It was most definitely a plot device.

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