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Comment Who cares? (Score 1) 470

"By incorporating examples of pseudoscience into lectures, instructors can provide students with the tools needed to understand the difference between scientific and pseudoscientific or paranormal claims"

Everyone already has all the tools they need to separate "real" from "pseudo" science. It's not that they can't, they just won't.

People who want to believe in this stuff believe in this stuff. It's not a lack of understanding or intellect, they simply want to (or not to) believe.

Comment Robot vision (Score 1) 496

I'm surprised how low-tech these solutions are. They appear to be going for the "classic solution" of simply piping a camera's view to a screen, perhaps with some overlays.

I recall seeing a demo many years ago of a robot vision system. If you're not familiar with the term, it uses a number of low-res cameras (all cameras were when the demo was made) pointing in different directions, and fused the imagery together in 3D software to produce a view from any location looking at any location. The idea was to put these in armoured vehicles and allow the guys inside to look anywhere.

This seems like a much better solution here. Instead of simply replacing the mirror with a high-def camera, replace it with a dozen VGA cameras around the car. Fuse the imagery back together and then overlay it on a 3D model of the car as seen from above. Now you get a birds-eye view from the front looking down showing you all the traffic in the area.

Comment Re:Cents per Watt (Score 5, Informative) 79

> Can someone who understands the subject matter better than I do please explain
> to me how "cents per watt" is an applicable comparative metric for fossil fuels and solar cells

The price of electricity is basically the total money you put into running the plant over its lifetime divided by the total amount of power you get out of it during that lifetime. That's called the "levelized cost of electricity" or LCoE.

For plants that don't use fuel - wind, hydro, PV - the total amount of money is basically the price of the plant, the price of repairs and operations, and the price of borrowing the money to pay for the first two. For systems that go up in a short time, like wind and PV, the costs are utterly dominated by the price of the equipment.

For other sources the total cost of operations varies. Nuclear plants use fuel, but so little of it that it's not a major factor. However, these plants have enormous up front costs and decades long building cycles, so their LCoE tends to be utterly dominated by the prevailing interest rate. Coal and natural gas plants cost about 1/4 that of a nuclear plant and are therefore more heavily dominated by fuel costs, so their cost of operations goes up and down with the cost of the fuel.

So when you're trying to compare the price of a PV plant to a coal plant, for instance, the key metric in the case of PV is the cost of the panels. That's because there's no fuel cost and almost zero maintenance (had mine 5 years, done exactly $0 work on them so far).

Since the amount of sunlight shining in a particular area is averaged over long periods and available online, you can then predict the amount of power the plant will produce over its lifetime. For instance, in Toronto 1000 W worth of panels (i.e., a set of panels that will produce 1000 watts under specific conditions) will produce about 1200 kWh of power every year, after all conversion losses are factored in. We expect those panels to last about 25 years. So then

LCoE = (cost in cents/watt * size of system in watts) / (25 years * 1200 kWh * system size in KILOwatts)

So let's say the system, *all in*, costs you $3.50 a watt (about right these days). Then if you put up a system with 12 panels like mine, you get

LCoE = (3.50 * 3000) / (25 * 1200 * 3) = 11.66 cents/kWh

I think you'll find that is very comparable to what you are paying from your local utility, which is why PV is the fastest growing power source in the world today.

This same basic formula can be used with any power source, but the inputs will differ. For instance, the equivalent number for a nuclear power plant is about 7500 to 8000 kWh per kW of panels installed, because they run full out 24/7, or at apt 85% full power, or "capacity factor". But as you might expect, construction costs are much higher, about $8/W or more (that plant in Florida came in at about $11/W, which is why they cancelled it).

Likewise, wind turbines here in Ontario average about 30% "capacity factor" (CF), so that's about 2600 kWh/kW. That sounds bad until you consider they cost about $2/W installed. So when you compare the two head up it's something like (2 / 0.3) = 6.66 for wind vs. (8 / 0.85) = 9.41 for nuclear, which is why wind is the second fastest growing power source on the planet.

And that's why we measure everything in terms of cents per watt. If you know that (although dollars per watt is the typical figure) and the capacity factor, everything else sort of disappears. So you can get a *very* good idea of the economics simply by dividing the ($/W) by (CF).

If you'd like to do this on your own, with real numbers and more factors, you can. It's actually very easy and you can run through a given location in about 2 minutes:

http://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2012/05/21/green-apples/

Comment Re:Yay! (Score 1) 125

> You can never have a monopoly on a web page

Balogna. Google has content that they have captured both themselves and from other people that they use to feed their search results. Examples include AdWords, Books and YouTube. Since those two already exist, and block competitors from getting the data, you will find it very difficult to make a search engine that comes anywhere near as close to being as good. You'll have access to public works, but not the private ones that Google has swallowed.

Comment So this is a bad why? (Score 3, Insightful) 259

"1996. The first reports of root worm resistance were officially documented in 2011"

So we got 15 years of pesticide-free corn? And the downside is we have to return to what we used to do, until we get another variety?

If it's 15 years for that one too, I suspect we can out engineer the bugs continually.

Comment Re:fusion is expensive (Score 1) 196

> Who's to say that eventually, reactors will be built that not only work economically, but even cheaply?

Basically anyone that's not in the fusion industry. You know, like nuclear bomb designers:

Lawrence E Lidsky, ‘The Trouble With Fusion’, Technology Review Vol. 86 October, 1983. Pages 32-44.

Or large scientific groups:

Allen L Hammond, William D Metz, and Thomas H Maugh II, ‘Energy and the Future’ Washington DC, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1973.

Or the entire US power industry:

http://fire.pppl.gov/EPRI_Fusion_Criteria_1994.pdf

Or even supporters of other versions of fusion:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/a-veteran-of-fusion-science-proposes-narrowing-the-field/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

Comment Re:a blog starting with "change all the numbers" (Score 1) 196

> That blogger WISHES solar was only twice as expensive

Well that's what I paid for mine. Are you saying I'm lying?

> The DOE price survey says solar customers actually pay ten times as much

No, it says they paid ten times as much several years ago. Go look at the Table 1 in the latest version here:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

This is the DOE *prediction* is for 2018, based on numbers from 2011 (read the caption). And the one you're quoting twice the number on the DOE web site, which I suspect is an older report based on numbers from before 2010, precisely when the costs started falling so rapidly:

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us-solar-power-costs-fall-60-in-just-18-months_100012797/
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9244836/Solar_power_installation_costs_fall_through_the_floor

Ray, I don't know why you are clinging to this line of reasoning, but you need to stop wasting your time here and go read something that was compiled with data from last two years. Or, simply do what the original page said, and take the two minutes to do the calculation yourself.

Comment Re:green blog vs DOE. As long as nat gas 100% capa (Score 1) 196

An addendum, proving the point:

The DOE is currently estimating installation prices in 2018, you can see their numbers here:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

If you look at the number for PV, you'll see they predict $130.4/MWh at 25% CF. So that's $32.6/Mw, essentially. From that they estimate a total all-in cost of 144.3. Systems are going in at half that all over the place. First Solar just signed a PPA at 5.6 cents/kWh for 20 years in Nevada, which implies an installed cost of 85 cents/W.

If you compare that number to others on the same chart, even the DOE is saying things are pretty good. For instance, they say "Advanced Nuclear" is 108.4. So basically they're saying PV is expected to cost just a little more than nuclear in 2018. They predict wind will be significantly less expensive.

Yes, I'm aware that older DOE reports have much higher numbers for PV and wind, etc. Which simply shows how quickly things are changing in this field. It is also VERY telling when you take their predictions over the last 10 years and graph them.

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