[quote]Crysis is a well known example of a video game. While technically profitable, it was not competitively profitable, in that it performed much worse than other games of its scope in the past (for example, Doom 3) as a consequence of piracy.[/quote]
and this is proven ... how? Doom 3 is by id Software. Makers of Doom 1, Doom 2, Quake, Quake 3 Arena, etc., and coded by John Carmack. There are lots of people who would anything from that development house at that time, unseen.
Now Crysis was not bad, but not exactly great, either. It's the same genre, but really not the same thing.
[quote]
This would imply a substantive loss due to piracy.[/quote]
Again, proven how?
[quote]Try Googling crysis piracy, or read a link here: http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=19203%5B/quote%5D
Which is full of speculation -- and not backed up by even a speck of actual data.
Don't get me wrong -- Crysis sure was pirated.
[quote]The CEO of Stardock wrote an excellent article explaining business models for accounting for piracy, specifically commenting on the Crysis case. http://forums.sinsofasolarempire.com/post.aspx?postid=303512%5B/quote%5D
There is no mention on Crysis in that article, and no mention of piracy harming their business model either.
[quote]Later, piracy would prove to damage his game Demigod's short term viability, though technical measures (DRM in abstraction, though in practice just a method to detect pirated copies of the games) recovered it from likely failure. [/quote]
Backup, please? As asked in the original question?
[quote]Piracy is perceived to be a sufficiently significant problem that dealing with piracy is as important as dealing with marketing, deadlines, etc.[/quote]
Indeed. And all I can read out of that is that it's greed at work -- after all, if you have 100k pirates playing your game, the greedy mind will think "wow, 100k sales !" and go on to try to implement DRM, restrictive licensing, crappy always-online "protections", etc. to make that happen -- which does nothing to actually curb 100k pirates, and it really doesn't convert 100k pirates into sales. But a greedy mind will still feel as if they just lost 100k sales. (Not to say pirates are not greedy, I am looking at it from the other side in this argument).
[quote]It's a core business concern. What you're asking for then is "prove to me that measles is a horrible disease. Can you show me evidence of large populations dying due to measles in recent history?" You won't accept the answer, "we vaccinate against measles, everyone knows its bad but there aren't population-wide failures precisely because we vaccinate." [/quote]
Bad analogies and trying to subsume other people's reasoning is not exactly a good discussion tactic.
[quote]DRM and other measures have made serious problems due to piracy unlikely, but they still harm the product.[/quote]
How have DRM made serious problems due to piracy unlikely? Backup, please? Data?
[quote]You also are problematic with "provably": "provably" by mathematical standards or by, say, business standards? No one can "prove" why a product is a success or failure, but merely provide persuasive evidence for it. I would imagine you have the same misunderstanding with the legal system, which does not require proof of "no possible doubt" but rather proof of "no reasonable doubt." [/quote]
Again you assume unrelated things in this discussion. It makes you look stupid.
[quote]There is no reasonable doubt that piracy harmed Crysis, making it (compared to other games) a financial failure for Crytek.[/quote]
But indeed there is reasonable doubt. One could ask whether its system requirements were simply too high, whether its marketing plan was decently executed, whether its prospective customer base had other things on the market more interesting to them at the time, etc. etc. etc. To me there is not just reasonable doubt that piracy harmed Crysis -- in fact, were CryTek to claim so, I would look at it as the "easy excuse" or the scapegoat. After all, you cannot, as you so eloquently stated, prove it -- so you cannot disprove it either.
[quote] To the readers of my comment: my point is that there's clear, reasonable evidence of the harms of piracy. But we're faced with a questioner who has an adversarial and unconvertible frame of mind.[/quote]
An assumption on your part, of course. The questioner asked for something rather reasonable : a financial failure of a product directly attributable to piracy. There probably is such a product, but Crysis is not it. Of course, once we find such products, another question should then be asked : are there any cases of products being a financial success due to piracy? Please don't dismiss it out of hand :-)