Comment Re:Adaptation versus Mitigation (Score 1) 304
I think we're using two different definitions for forcing and researching the matter doesn't really clear it up very well. I was using forcing in the sense that the 280 ppm of CO2 that was in the atmosphere before the recent rise is a forcing and by adding more CO2 we've increase the forcing. A quote from a 2005 paper "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications". by James Hansen, et. al. supports this:
The largest forcing is due to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs)—CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons)—and other trace gases, totaling 2.75 W/m^2 in 2003 relative to the 1880 value (Table 1).
Notice the paper says "2.75 W/m^2 in 2003 relative to the 1880 value" which implies they're taking existing natural forcing into account. But I can see where you might consider forcing to mean just that part that's over and above the exiting natural forcing that preexisted anthropogenic climate change.
Also I don't think your math of subtracting the current anthropogenic forcing of 2.9 W/m^2 from the energy imbalance in valid. In the first place if the 2.9 W/m^2 forcing is relative to sometime in the 1800's then we've already realized a fair amount of the warming it caused so the energy imbalance is from only the part of that forcing that hasn't been realized yet, not the whole 2.9 W/m^2. To me that implies if the energy imbalance continues to remain the same over time then the forcing must be increasing to keep the imbalance going. Otherwise the energy imbalance would cause temperatures to eventually catch up to the existing forcing (natural and anthropogenic) reducing the imbalance to zero.
The only way we could reduce the anthropogenic forcing of 2.9 W/m^2 is by reducing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. If all we did was stop emitting CO2 the excess that we've added would remain and the anthropogenic forcing would still exist.
The measure and notion of forcings as applies to computer simulations like the Hansen paper can be confusing when applied/translated to immediate conditions at a point in time. As you note in your quote, the 2.75 number is the impact from the total change in GHG's(not just CO2, nor just human emitted GHG's) from 1880 through 2003. Hansen later notes the overall forcing(not just GHG) from 1880 through 2003:
The net change of effective forcing between 1880 and 2003 is +1.8 W/m2
I'm going to reference the +1.8W/M^2 for my prior example, because Hansen does the same later so it's easier to verify against his own words. With a net increase in forcing from 1880 to 2003 of +1.8, and with a imbalance today between 0.5 and 1 we can work out what has already been responded to and what has not. For ease of use, let's pick(as Hansen does) a current imbalance of 0.8W/M^2. In that case, the planet has already responded to 1W/m^2 of the forcing and has 0.8W/m^2 to go. Alternatively to state it as I did earlier, if we returned our atmospheric conditions to 1880 but at our current global temperatures, we'd see the energy imbalance drop by 1.8W/M^2, or a net -1W/m^2, and we'd be forcing ourselves back to an 1880 equilibrium. Hansen says the same thing in different words in your article :
This imbalance is consistent with the total forcing of +1.8 W/m2 relative to that in 1880 and climate sensitivity of +2/3-C per W/m2. The observed 1880 to 2003 global warming is 0.6- to 0.7-C (11, 22), which is the full response to nearly 1 W/m2 of forcing. Of the 1.8 W/m2 forcing, 0.85 W/m2 remains.
That is all to say that forcings are just measures of changes to the green house effect from one time to another, mostly used in climate simulations as a means to test and understand the workings of the underlying system. If removing XX W/m^2 of forcing from a simulation instantly and with no other changes DOESN'T shift the energy balance the exact same amount, then the underlying basic physics model of simulation is broken. That's why the effort and notes by Hansen to rectify the two and note they remain consistent with one another as one or the other rises.
Also observe that Hansen's work is entirely with simulations, with only about 9 variable forcings taken into account in effort to simulate a portion of what happened since 1880. He also doesn't distinguish which parts of the forcings are anthropogenic versus natural. His underlying effort was to look at the speed with which temperature and energy imbalance may have responded to the changes since 1880. His only references to observed energy imbalance reference Levitus Ocen heat work, and the note that from 1955 through 1998 the ocean's heated at a roughly steady rate of 10W/M^2, or approximately 1W/m^2 globally. Hansen later notes his simulations from 1993 through 2003 that show 0.6 W/m^2 recently are in good agreement with Levitus newer observations of that same time of 0.55 W/m^2.
I will observe that the energy imbalance is decreasing over time by observations, as stated by Hansen. That has been happening while our CO2 emissions and concentrations are still increasing. I count that cause for optimism versus panicking that CO2 impacts might be even worse than IPCC projections.