None of these things (particularly 1 and 2) prove Obamacare is (present tense) a disaster.
I consider it like a landslide. The disaster starts some time before people start dying and property starts getting buried. There is a point when disaster and the harm it causes is inevitable. I believe we are past that point for Obamacare now.
You are free to believe anything you want.
I intend to listen to the accountants in charge of monitoring government expenditures, who say flat-out Obamacare is controlling costs.
You've really got to stretch credibility to argue that a program that is perfectly sustainable during a massive recession will magically become unsustainable in the next decade.
It's "perfectly sustainable" in that a) large portions of the program have been deliberately delayed in implementation, and b) most of it which has been running, has done so for only the past year. Calling a system which hasn't quite fallen apart in its first year "perfectly sustainable" is an abuse of the English language.
So you admit that the actual numbers so far so absolutely zero signs of the disaster you predict, and that your conclusion is based entirely on your anticipation of future events?
Problem is you have demonstrated precisely zero knowledge of how health care economics works in the real world.
There are a number of dynamics which are ignored here. First, that the subsidies perfectly insulate from the cost of the insurance. Once you've chewed through the deductible of the insurance, you have no further reason to care about reducing the cost of your healthcare.
An interesting criticism. It would be significantly more persuasive if there following weren't true:
1) The alternative to Obamacare is employer-sponsored health plans that are significantly worse at giving consumers "skin in the game" then an Exchange policy.
2) This line of reasoning is precisely the opposite of what one observes when one looks at reality, rather then elegant economic theories. The UK has no version of cost-sharing, the Canadians have very little cost-sharing, and the US lots of cost-sharing. Yet the Brits have lower costs then the Canadians, who have lower costs then us. If you're going to counter with that ridiculous "but Americans are just more expensive to treat " argument I'll be forced to bring out the actual costs of US programs.
In healthcare the main driver of actual costs is always what Doctors tell their patients. People go to my employer (Home Depot) and pick the second-most expensive product all the time because they figure that';s the one they need, but at a Doctor's office they're going to either a) trust the Doctor's judgement and move heaven and earth (prior to Obamacare Spaghetti Charity dinners were the method chosen) to get the exact procedure he recommends. In a centralized system these costs can be contained by whomever is in charge. In a decentralized system they cannot be contained.
Medicaid provides similar insulation, but it has the cost control feature that health care can simply be withheld either directly or by various games such as delaying service or making the act of getting service more onerous.
Bullshit.
The cost control feature in Medicaid is that it's reimbursement rates are crap. It's hard to convince Doctors to care for Medicaid patients is that they read the fee schedule and said fuck that, not isn't that they read some asshole's Economics PhD's thesis on supply and demand in the health industry and concluded they had a moral duty to encourage people to get off Medicaid by refusing service.
As health care and health insurance costs continue to rise (since most people don't actually have incentive to consume less health care no matter how expensive it gets), then we get to the next dynamic, a strong incentive to dump more people onto Medicaid. But those people vote. The bigger that group gets the harder it'll be to cut back on service.
If this is true, why isn't it worse in Canada? Or the UK? Sweden? You do realize that, even prior to the passage of Obamacare, we spent more dollars per capita on health care then any country in the entire fucking world?
The simple answer is that it's not worse in those countries because you don't understand how economics works in the medical field. Demand in medicine is provider-driven, which means that the only way to keep prices from increasing exponentially is have a payer with the market-power to say no and make it stick.
Insurance companies meanwhile have an assortment of incentives encouraging them to aggressively take on risk. The ones who make poor risk choices will be subsidized by those who didn't.
That's one of the reasons people like Obamacare. My Mom had skin cancer. She's 63. She is high risk. She works in retail. Any market-set price for her insurance policy would probably be greater then her income.
ObamaCare fixed that.
I think that's going to encourage a headlong rush into bankruptcy for a bunch of insurance companies. But not in a way that fails in the first year of operations.
So you're telling me that a) you support free-market principles, and b) you think a bunch of companies are going to fuck up by assuming too much risk and failing, and you are concluding c) that's a terrible thing?
Can you name single country which has actually had either a) universal health care, or b) a manned space program without the government footing the bill?
The US. You're playing semantics games with the terms, "universal health care" and "manned space program". For example, paying for your own health care is just as universal as any government scheme. You just don't like the level at which service is set for those who can't or won't pay for their health care. Similarly, we already have a number of private manned space programs in the US. They just haven't yet put people into space. That strikes me as a strong indication that we'd have many of these even in the absence of NASA money.
So you're arguing that it's linguistically possible to have a universal health care program that doesn't have universal coverage, and that the private market would spend $10 Billion a year on space shuttles if only NASA hadn't crowded them out?