I think this nails it perfectly.
The question is biased in its very nature. How could someone possibly prove piracy failed their company, when someone can always just counter with "you just didn't get enough exposure"
Which is very annoying, because thats basically what we all struggle to do. I don't think its ever the case that piracy caused something to fail, but its much more likely that it prevented the business from getting the chance to succeed.
(For the purpose of this debate, I'm ignoring the "collectors". I used to download everything under the sun, and I wouldn't have given a second thought if one of those companies died. Instead, I'm talking about the people who would have paid money for it had they not been able to find it for free. The "on the fence" people if you will, those are the ones that it really hurts to lose out on)
I run a small business selling software, and I can tell you that when my app got cracked, my sales dropped by more than 30%.
Ponder that for a second. Imagine walking into work one day, and finding out you got a 30% paycut. Because well, someone in China was just bored that day.
Right now, if things continue as they are, its unlikely I'll be able to continue doing this for more than a month or two, before the rest of my savings bleeds out, and I have to move on.
Of course, things could change, I could catch my lucky break. And I've obviously made some mistakes, it wasn't just piracy that put me in this position. But that doesn't change the fact that I would be more likely to survive if more of the people who downloaded it actually paid for it.
And that whole "piracy is a form of advertisement" is utter crap, because only the people who already know about the program pirate it. Its hard enough to get people to know about the program, but harder still when they leave your site to find it for free.
Now, you can look at my story and say, people might just be interest in my product. It's cold. But it may be true. I may have just gone after a market that wasn't there. So who cares if I fail?
And I think that's the deepest irony in all of this. Because you know who cares? The people who are pirating my program! Obviously, it fulfills a role they need, or they wouldn't download it. So, they have a need that they want fulfilled, but because they didn't pay for it, I can't improve the software they want to use.