Comment Re:Strange title.... (Score 1) 286
Not sure why we'd have another dot-crash. Lets compare
1999:
The world was in un-fettered prosperity
The government was the good-guys with surpluses and expanding state/local infrastructure.. Fiber was being laid. Communism was failing
People would quit the corporate world and be driven by silly business plans to build entire small-business capital ventures
The market saw growth-growth-growth
The pricing grew to reflect the short-term trend - the lead-in to a generic business plan - it self-fed (unsustainable exponential growth)
Then when the generic business plan got into the ROI phase.. there was NO ROI.... All the business plans failed at the same time
The market tanks
The world economy restabalizes (note, doesn't crash..yet)
All those small firms put a lot of people in under-employment (less shipping, less flying, less office-supplies, less construction, less luxry purchases, etc).
Local municipalities/labor-intensive-corporation had contractually obligated themselves to 7% annual growth for pension plans
Said market collapse and re-stabalization with more modest 4% growth, brings projected short-falls EVERYWHERE
2002:
World governments over-react (including to 9/11) - drop interest rate to near zero
under-employed masses react (as intended) by borrowing
The ONLY viable investment at this point is the still-growing land/gold-inflation. (e.g. finite-resource ownership).
Both hyper-inflate.
Producing another lead-in to a business plan that will have exponential growth and ultimately super-saturate ROI and thus pop - nothing would prevent this BUT
Newly deregulated banks now cross-buy their depleted LOSS-MAKING pension-funds (due to 2000 collapse) into the ONLY profit making venture, the obvious-bubble-making finite-resource market (gems, land, etc). Gems run the risk of a precious metal rush (e.g. uncovering a massive gold main). Housing is highly contingent upon the pyramid scheme.. Need more buyers than sellers - can't perpetuate unless you have an abundant birth rate (WHICH IS DROPPING).
World banks determine inflation is too high.. They jack up interest rates.
This chokes but does not end the bank-borrowing growth rate
Deregulated banks get more clever and aggressive with their loan practices - new forms of insurance (CDF) allows them to flat out gamble against their own customers - hedging their gambling bets. This is a short-term win.. And so long as you're the first one that quits the game, you can win. Now, there is no longer a free-market incentive for banks to find credible loan customers, and likewise they have incentives to bribe ratings agencies to lie, and both then have incentives to lie to share-holders. So the market capitalizes this ultimately flawed strategy. Country-wide (of which I personally successuflly contributed) had the country's leading CD ROI (at 6%), reflecting secured investments due to guarnteed fraud-based profits.
Then bad-debt begins to default.
The insurance begins to pay-out
Projects are re-normalized
Heavy gamblers that didn't immediately exist are punished.
The world governments over-react
The re-normalized land-value chokes potential sellers (being under-water they couldn't sell if they wanted to)
This prevents geographic job migration (you're stuck in Detroit Michigan)
The people employed in real-estate, investment-banking, corporate sales are now under-employed again - cascading more large corporate [semi-]failures. Air-lines, automotive, etc. All cascading an unemployment crisis in some countries.
Reduced commerce, unfullfilled gambling bets, investment losses, and projections there-of bring about impractical pension plans in countries like Greece, spain Ireland. Their elected policies could work in a 1999 world economy, but not in a 2008 recession. Debts pile up, productivity halts in greece, countries and currencies are on the verge of collapse.
2013
Unemployement likely continues as inflation and government debt escallates and starts to choke public investment spending (thereby reducing world-wide government employment - e.g. austerity measures).. Somehow conservatives in Germany and the US prevent big projects/investments from cash-injection, and thus the world economy stiffles.. Meanwhile...
Communist controlled countries with managed currency, factories, natural resources, continue to buy entire countries with scarse resources.. (Using cheap labor as their initial source of income).. Oil, and materials used in high tech equipment like batteries and electronics are slowly shifting profits from middle-east to China.
2016
Trade wars are in full effect, with corporate espionage, contractual violations
Natural disasters and continued US draughts further escallate world-wide shortages (shifting cheap food production sales from China)
2020
Shortages of basic scarce resources lead to a new world-war between the east and west..
Not seeing tech as a major factor. :)
1999:
The world was in un-fettered prosperity
The government was the good-guys with surpluses and expanding state/local infrastructure.. Fiber was being laid. Communism was failing
People would quit the corporate world and be driven by silly business plans to build entire small-business capital ventures
The market saw growth-growth-growth
The pricing grew to reflect the short-term trend - the lead-in to a generic business plan - it self-fed (unsustainable exponential growth)
Then when the generic business plan got into the ROI phase.. there was NO ROI.... All the business plans failed at the same time
The market tanks
The world economy restabalizes (note, doesn't crash..yet)
All those small firms put a lot of people in under-employment (less shipping, less flying, less office-supplies, less construction, less luxry purchases, etc).
Local municipalities/labor-intensive-corporation had contractually obligated themselves to 7% annual growth for pension plans
Said market collapse and re-stabalization with more modest 4% growth, brings projected short-falls EVERYWHERE
2002:
World governments over-react (including to 9/11) - drop interest rate to near zero
under-employed masses react (as intended) by borrowing
The ONLY viable investment at this point is the still-growing land/gold-inflation. (e.g. finite-resource ownership).
Both hyper-inflate.
Producing another lead-in to a business plan that will have exponential growth and ultimately super-saturate ROI and thus pop - nothing would prevent this BUT
Newly deregulated banks now cross-buy their depleted LOSS-MAKING pension-funds (due to 2000 collapse) into the ONLY profit making venture, the obvious-bubble-making finite-resource market (gems, land, etc). Gems run the risk of a precious metal rush (e.g. uncovering a massive gold main). Housing is highly contingent upon the pyramid scheme.. Need more buyers than sellers - can't perpetuate unless you have an abundant birth rate (WHICH IS DROPPING).
World banks determine inflation is too high.. They jack up interest rates.
This chokes but does not end the bank-borrowing growth rate
Deregulated banks get more clever and aggressive with their loan practices - new forms of insurance (CDF) allows them to flat out gamble against their own customers - hedging their gambling bets. This is a short-term win.. And so long as you're the first one that quits the game, you can win. Now, there is no longer a free-market incentive for banks to find credible loan customers, and likewise they have incentives to bribe ratings agencies to lie, and both then have incentives to lie to share-holders. So the market capitalizes this ultimately flawed strategy. Country-wide (of which I personally successuflly contributed) had the country's leading CD ROI (at 6%), reflecting secured investments due to guarnteed fraud-based profits.
Then bad-debt begins to default.
The insurance begins to pay-out
Projects are re-normalized
Heavy gamblers that didn't immediately exist are punished.
The world governments over-react
The re-normalized land-value chokes potential sellers (being under-water they couldn't sell if they wanted to)
This prevents geographic job migration (you're stuck in Detroit Michigan)
The people employed in real-estate, investment-banking, corporate sales are now under-employed again - cascading more large corporate [semi-]failures. Air-lines, automotive, etc. All cascading an unemployment crisis in some countries.
Reduced commerce, unfullfilled gambling bets, investment losses, and projections there-of bring about impractical pension plans in countries like Greece, spain Ireland. Their elected policies could work in a 1999 world economy, but not in a 2008 recession. Debts pile up, productivity halts in greece, countries and currencies are on the verge of collapse.
2013
Unemployement likely continues as inflation and government debt escallates and starts to choke public investment spending (thereby reducing world-wide government employment - e.g. austerity measures).. Somehow conservatives in Germany and the US prevent big projects/investments from cash-injection, and thus the world economy stiffles.. Meanwhile...
Communist controlled countries with managed currency, factories, natural resources, continue to buy entire countries with scarse resources.. (Using cheap labor as their initial source of income).. Oil, and materials used in high tech equipment like batteries and electronics are slowly shifting profits from middle-east to China.
2016
Trade wars are in full effect, with corporate espionage, contractual violations
Natural disasters and continued US draughts further escallate world-wide shortages (shifting cheap food production sales from China)
2020
Shortages of basic scarce resources lead to a new world-war between the east and west..
Not seeing tech as a major factor.