What I have been wondering about lately is how long we will have sufficient oil to meet our needs.
I have seen estimates for current world wide oil consumption at 88 million barrels a day.
It is harder to figure out world reserves. Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves) shows 1.2 trillion barrels from the top seventeen oil reserves.
That is 37 years.
At our current rate of progress, I think it is fair to assume our daily usage is headed upwards.
I don't know what our current daily production capacity is capable of. I assume that is not much more than 88 million barrels a day or there wouldn't be so much talk about peak-oil. If we are at peak-oil, then it appears that in the very near future we will not be able to produce 88 million barrels a day anymore.
Thus, we will start running into problems due to lack of sufficient oil. If oil production falls to say 60 million barrels a day, then 1.2 trillion barrels lasts 54 years. So oil will be around a little longer, but not in sufficient quantities.
I realize there is more oil to be found in the deep oceans, but this oil will be hard to get.
Is the human race totally screwed in the next 30 to 50 years do to lack of oil?
Or am I missing something big here?
I used to assume that as oil started to run low that its price would go up, perhaps dramatically. However, the last time gas hit $160 a barrel the economy crashed and consumed less oil, and oil fell to $30. It is therefore possible to imagine that oil prices will not actually increase as oil runs out, because the economy will be ruined.
Another example of this is helium. I hear we are running out of helium. Helium is necessary for science and research and yet, it is still cheap enough to be used to fill birthday balloons. Will we run out of helium, while all the while the price is dirt cheap?