Comment Re:What does this mean for manned exploration? (Score 1) 324
*shrug*
I'm all for the commercialization of Space. NASA was/is a waste of time and money.
You don't have to be much of a science fiction fan to appreciate the opportunities created by a serious presence in space. Even if we teleoperated everything from the ground, orbital power is a winner. Asteroid mining to prevent the destruction of our own environment down here is a winner. And human history has proven time and time again that opportunities can be opened up by endeavors and scientific discovery that we couldn't even begin to imagine at the outset.
There's so much more we should be doing up there. The shuttle was just farting around in LEO. We should end it to do something better, not end it to abandon a manned presence in space. If we're not going to move forward up there, other nations will. And we will have ceded the high frontier.
The reason for this is simple. The energy requirements of achieving orbit are simply too high given that mankind is mired in the chemical-energy age. A real human presence outside of LEO cannot be achieved without nuclear propulsion. There simply is no other way around the energy requirements.
Why do I say this? Because mankind has already given up a 60 year old technology capable of boosting entire cities anywhere in the solar system, and even for achieving low relativistic velocities.
Cost estimates projected that for 1% of the US GDP (a paltry $130 billion, not even 10% of the dual stimulus and bank bailouts) we could build an operate an 8 million ton vehicle in the solar system. This is an estimate based on using 1958 materials, and a craft designed with modern, strong materials (carbon fibers and the like) could be significantly heavier.
It is *simply impossible* to fathom that this $130 billion dollar investment would not achieve greater dividends than, say, Obama stimulus. It may have even been superior to the economic effects of the TARP.
And I'd hazard a guess that it would improve both the economy and health care (through technological advances) if we spent the $900 billion Obama is allocating for HCR on Orion vessels (we could build a fleet of ships the size of Star War's Star Destroyers!).
Space Factories. Space Farms. Fleets of Solar Power Satellites. High Energy Risk Free Research Stations. Cities on the Moon. Cities on Mars. Massive Scale Asteroid Belt Mining. Construction and operation of additional vessels outside the Earth's magnetosphere.
So we have to detonated some nuclear explosives in the Earth's atmosphere to get it going. Mankind did this for years, and old for war purposes, not science/economic. Not to mention, the launching of Solar Power Satellites would probably result in a net reduction of radiation emissions due to man's activities.
Even then, the total fallout from an Orion program would be minimal:
But the main unsolved problem for a launch from the surface of the Earth was thought to be nuclear fallout. Any explosions within the magnetosphere would carry fissionables back to earth unless the spaceship were launched from a polar region such as a barge in the higher regions of the Arctic, with the initial launching explosion to be a large mass of conventional high explosive only to significantly reduce fallout; subsequent detonations would be in the air and therefore much cleaner. Antarctica is not viable, as this would require enormous legal changes as the continent is presently an international wildlife preserve. Freeman Dyson, group leader on the project, estimated back in the '60s that with conventional nuclear weapons, each launch would cause on average between 0.1 and 1 fatal cancers from the fallout.[14] Danger to human life was not a reason given for shelving the project - those included lack of mission requirement (no-one in the US Government could think of any reason to put thousands of tons of payload into orbit), the decision to focus on rockets (for the Moon mission) and, ultimately, the signature of the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963. The danger to electronic systems on the ground (from electromagnetic pulse) is insignificant from the sub-KiloTon blasts proposed.
It's dishearting, isn't it? Makes chemical rockets like the shuttle seem like glorified children's toys