So basically its total BS..
Basically, that is the way that I see it. There is no other way for them to tell if I watched the commercials.
If they really wanted accurate data they would pay you to wear an RFID tag so they could tell if you were even in the room while things are playing, and install software on your DVR to tell them exactly what was on the screen.
When my wife signed us up, I really assumed that they would have some type of electronic device that would track everything or they would have a way to pull the info from the DVRs.
If they really wanted to be accurate, they would get together with the different providers of the DVRs, Cable boxes, Sat receivers, etc and add the ability to log all the needed data. You would have to also build in the capability for the user to shut off the logging so that people will not complain about their privacy being invaded. You could then upload the logs on a nightly basis from all the users that allow it and compile it. There is so many ways that you could slice the data. There is enough people that would be willing to do this that you would get pretty accurate numbers. You would also get the numbers year round instead of the one week a year as it is in the current system.
I bet that there are ways to tag the individual commercials so that they can track which commercials are actually being watched. They could compile this data and sell it to the add companies so that they have better data on what catches peoples attention. I also notice that a lot of times, I will watch the first commercial before I remember that I can fast forward. I usually also catch the end of the last commercial. They could sell this info to the TV stations which could use that data to justify charging more for the first and last commercials in a break.