Then surely this just backs up my point, which was that you can't use the current performance as a guarantee of future results. What I was using the past performance for was as proof of that exact point; not that past warming was proof of future warming but that the current pattern cannot be used as proof of the lack of future warming.
My point is that it goes both ways. An apparent 'pause' in warming doesn't predict warmer or cooler (or stable) temperatures tomorrow, next year, or over the next decade. A few decades of observed warming do not - themselves - predict future warming either.
Of course it didn't go back a long way. It was a graph showing more detail of the most recent temperatures to demonstrate how noisy the data is that you can't use a short term phenomenon as a predictor of long term trends. It was not the graph that I was referring to throughout the rest of my post about the previous lulls and drops in temperature not being harbingers of the end of global warming. I was looking at a PDF of a graph while I was writing, but I had intended to link to an online version in my post. Rather than me choose one that you might take issue with, why don't you do a Google search and find one yourself. Whichever you choose they demonstrate my point.
That wasn't really my point; my point was merely that we've only just very, very recently had satellite data added to the mix. And that data, though more complete than anything before it, is still subject to measurement issues. It marks an improvement in our toolbox, but that improvement has only provided an incredibly small amount of new data and we need a whole lot more.
We have a pretty good picture of temperatures dating back thousands of years from various sources like tree growth patterns and ice core samples. So do you really think that scientists suddenly get all stupid about interpreting the measurements made a hundred years ago? That they can't (or didn't think to) correlate between the various measuring stations at the time and factor equipment problems and local environmental changes?
It is no coincidence that temperature graphs for modern times all start in the mid to late 1800s. That is the time that scientists agree is when accurate enough records began. You might like to say that it is only the last 45 years that we have accurate measurements, but the scientific community would beg to differ on that assertion.
Until around the 1930s (in some places, the 1920s, but in vanishingly few places prior thereto), most places where temperature measurements were taken were not scientific labs. They were simple weather stations where the person doing the measuring simply looked at an old mercury thermometer located randomly (sometimes near a heat source). There was little to no training for that person for taking the measurements in a standard way, the equipment used was crude and uncalibrated (not that it would help considering the level of precision available with common thermometers at the time), there was no standard time of day for measurement taking, no verification of measurements, etc. Statistical smoothing (like the kind applied to the surface temperature reconstructions done for data collected prior to about the 1930s) can help weed out a few bad measurements here in there in a largely accurate and precise data set. What it cannot do is take hugely incomplete, inaccurate, imprecise data measured in non-standard ways with crude instruments and numerous unknown outside variables and turn that into something useful enough to demonstrate a fraction of a degree difference in temperature.
All that taken together, the margin of error for surface measurements taken between the early 1800s and the 1930s should be around 1-2C. It just isn't scientifically significant data in a discussion about temperature changes of
Suicidal? How can it be suicidal to reduce our carbon footprint to a level that we had in the past, when obviously we didn't all die out back then - either literally or economically. And they say the AGW proponents are alarmists!!
You should re-read what I wrote. I said that setting public policy based on our current level of understanding is foolish, not suicidal. What I said was suicidal was purposely attempting to alter the climate with mass engineering efforts (think stratospheric sulfate aerosols). It's completely insane to even consider such an effort today given that we have such a poor understanding of how our climate works. To continue my analogy, it'd be like that child in the nuclear power plant seeing a blinking light, deciding it must be bad, and trying to make it stop blinking by pushing buttons.
But if you are right and we really don't know enough about the environment, surely the most sensible approach would be to not keep pumping the atmosphere with substances that we don't know what effect it will have on our climate. Stop doing that until we know more. How can you possibly defend doing otherwise? Surely those children who haven't mastered basic arithmetic shouldn't be trying to build nuclear power plants.
You should re-read what I wrote. I specifically stated... well you know what, I'll just past it here again and maybe this time it'll get read:
It doesn't mean we shouldn't take reasonable steps to reduce obvious negative impacts we have on our environment.
Now we'll see the difference in the replies to me between a reasonable, rational individual who will agree that the goals of reducing our obvious, measurable, visible environmental impact are good and should be pursued and the AGW zealots who will demand that all believe as they believe, worship as they worship at the alter of the IPCC, and who will cast me out as a heretic and an infidel regardless of common goals.
The point is this: we don't have to agree that AGW is happening (and from my post, it should be obvious that I'm agnostic on the issue as I don't believe we have sufficient information, understanding, or context to really know either way at this juncture) to agree on common goals for reducing our environmental impact. We can agree that - with a suitable replacement available - we should phase out the use of dirty technologies like coal and oil. We can agree that dumping plastic into the ocean to the point that it creates whole islands of garbage is bad. We can agree that blowing up the tops of mountains is bad. We can agree that dumping heavy metals into rivers is bad. We don't have to agree on AGW to agree on the common goal of providing sufficient funding and tools to better understand our climate and how our actions impact it. Probably 70%+ of what environmentalists claim to want is easily arguable without requiring a belief in AGW.
But an AGW zealot doesn't want to stop using coal or oil half as much as they want everyone to drink their kool-aid and worship at the altar of the IPCC. The heretics must be burned at the stake, regardless of how much carbon that'll release.