Comment Re:Right wing tribalism (Score 1) 167
Nice try, but you cannot compare conditional probabilities directly. The probability of victim being white when the killer is black is conditional. You cannot compare it to probability of victim being back when the killer is white. These are apples and oranges.
Let's assume the killings are random and everyone has equal capacity for murder.
The probability of killer being black is 2/17. The probability that he kills white person in random killing is 15/16. Hence the probability of killer being black and victim being white is (2/17)*(15/16)=11%
The probability of killer being white is 15/17. The probability that he kills black person in random killing is 2/16. Hence the probability of killer being white and victim being black is (15/17)*(2/16)=11% - the same
If you are seeing discrepancy between black-on-white and white-on-black rates then our assumption that murders are random and everyone has the same capacity for murder does not hold.
Let's assume the killings are random and everyone has equal capacity for murder.
The probability of killer being black is 2/17. The probability that he kills white person in random killing is 15/16. Hence the probability of killer being black and victim being white is (2/17)*(15/16)=11%
The probability of killer being white is 15/17. The probability that he kills black person in random killing is 2/16. Hence the probability of killer being white and victim being black is (15/17)*(2/16)=11% - the same
If you are seeing discrepancy between black-on-white and white-on-black rates then our assumption that murders are random and everyone has the same capacity for murder does not hold.