SpaceX got one thing right: it's conservative.
It's using proven technology with no exotic materials that they had to develop themselves. They're not even using the more efficient Hydrogen as fuel - they're using the less efficient but much more reasonable kerosene. This is what allowed them to develop a reasonable launcher for better-than-reasonable prices.
However, it's a far cry from round trips to Mars. That needs a lot of exotic development and is in uncharted territory, unlike everything else that SpaceX has done before. Musk's promises are worthless here unless he can see into the future.