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Comment Re:I think musk lost his marbles (Score 1) 238

Mining water from an extraterrestrial body, with or without humans, is science fiction at the moment. I don't see how you can make 10 year plans that involve this.

As to passenger-less travel, I'm all for it. It's so much cheaper, faster, safer, and efficient that I don't see why anyone bothers with people.

Comment Re:I think musk lost his marbles (Score 1) 238

Let's list them
- getting a large enough can to space (Apollo and Dragon are too small for an 8 month voyage with all the consumables needed)
- protecting the humans from radiation during the 8 month voyage
- slowing down (can be done with fuel, but increases launch costs a LOT)
- landing (can be done with fuel, but increases launch costs a LOT)
- generating fuel and consumables on Mars
- handling contingencies

Submarines that are capable of 8 month voyages mass 10,000 tons. Fancy lifting that into space?b

Comment Re:I think musk lost his marbles (Score 1) 238

SpaceX got one thing right: it's conservative.

It's using proven technology with no exotic materials that they had to develop themselves. They're not even using the more efficient Hydrogen as fuel - they're using the less efficient but much more reasonable kerosene. This is what allowed them to develop a reasonable launcher for better-than-reasonable prices.

However, it's a far cry from round trips to Mars. That needs a lot of exotic development and is in uncharted territory, unlike everything else that SpaceX has done before. Musk's promises are worthless here unless he can see into the future.

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