And once again, you are distorting my comment, which was an admission that I did not know the answer, and characterizing it instead as some kind of denial. You have deserved this at least a hundred times: fuck off, until you figure out how to actually have a discussion with someone rather than insulting them and claiming they said something they didn't. You sorely lack social skills, man. I mean the minimum kind needed to have a rational debate. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-08]
Given the content of your reply, I am going to give you some credit for relevance. But I do so only very cautiously, in light of your past behavior. I say up front: if you have science to present, then present it. Facts and figures, with references. Otherwise, you have nothing to say to me. I have been very tolerant, and even so I do not like you, or your behavior, or your methods. But if you can produce real science, I will look at it. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-09]
Charming, as usual. It's strange that you ask for real science to support the "alarmist" fact that humans caused the rise in CO2 because we're burning carbon to release CO2 faster than the warming oceans can outgas their dissolved CO2. Is anyone we know of disputing that? Is it even part of the "debate"?
"Humans releases more gas then can be absorbed in the same time period as the release." [geekoid]
Yes, we know that. Nobody I know of is disputing that. It's not even part of the debate. ... [Jane Q. Public, 2012-05-09]
The misinformation campaign masquerading as a "debate" certainly does include people disputing the fact that humans caused the ~40% increase in CO2 since the Industrial Revolution.
Since Jane asked:
What you've done is proven that CO2 levels may be rising. You haven't proven what has caused those rises. Correlation doesn't equal causation. ... [Archangel Michael, 2010-12-31]
Agree with Archangel Michael. Human-caused CO2 is about 0.28% of the total. Even if the oceans are getting significantly more acidic or not, it's pretty damned hard to pin that on human activity. Not only is it not "case closed", it's "what case?" [Jane Q. Public, 2010-12-31]
Jane agrees with Michael's claim that we don't know what caused CO2 levels to rise. Jane's "0.28%" meme disputes the fact that simple accounting (PDF) shows our carbon emissions (mostly from burning fossil fuels) are responsible for ~200% of the modern rise in atmospheric CO2. This is possible because the oceans (and land) are absorbing roughly half of our CO2 emissions, which causes ocean acidification.
Sadly, many people are confused about this fact because they pull the wrong numbers from crackpot websites.
Pardon me. I did indeed pull the wrong numbers. Still, human-caused CO2 is only a few percent of the amount released naturally. Often it is less than the seasonal variability. Granted, a significant rise has happened since the beginning of the industrial revolution. But a flat statement such as "That increase is attributable to human activity." is disingenuous. It is a gross oversimplification. [Jane Q. Public, 2010-12-31]
... We have not been doubling the CO2 concentration via anthropogenic means. We have been contributing only a small percentage of the total. [Jane Q. Public, 2012-01-29]
Again, we've already increased CO2 by ~40%, and our carbon emissions are responsible for ~200% of this rise. Sadly, many people mistakenly claim we're only contributing a small percentage (transcript) because they ignore half of the natural carbon cycle.
For instance, Lord Monckton has repeatedly endorsed Dr. Murry Salby's denial that humans are causing the rise in CO2.
I've repeatedly failed to communicate that a plumber who understood plumbing as well as Monckton understands the carbon cycle would confuse a pool's circulation pump with a hose filling up the pool. They both pump water! The circulation pump even pumps more gallons per minute. So obviously the circulation pump is why the pool is filling up.
A surgeon who understood surgery as well as Monckton understands the carbon cycle would confuse a severed artery with the patient's heartbeat. They both pump blood! The heart even pumps more gallons per minute. So obviously the heart is responsible for that inexplicable long-term decreasing trend in blood pressure.
Jane and Lonny know of Lord Monckton. Jane's even linked to a "Principia Scientific International" blog post accusing scientists of fraud because Dr. Salby said accumulation of human emitted CO2 is somehow unphysical. Jane also knows of Prof. Curry, who infamously said "If Salby's analysis holds up, this could revolutionize AGW science."
Dr. Tim Ball and others also promoted Dr. Salby's misinformation, which is why scientists have been overwhelmed explaining that Dr. Salby is wrong to deny the fact that our carbon emissions are responsible for ~200% of the CO2 rise.
John Nielsen-Gammon notes: "Eventually I realized that if 0.8C of warming is sufficient to produce an increase of 120 [ppm] CO2, as Salby asserted, then the converse would also have to be true. During the last glacial maximum, when global temperatures were indisputably several degrees cooler than today, the atmospheric CO2 concentration must have been negative. That was enough for me."
Maybe Jane missed all the ironic accusations that have come to be known as the "Salby Storm". But Jane advertises "Steven Goddard's" accusations of fraud, and "Goddard" joined "carbongate" when he disputed the cause of rising CO2 using this zombie solubility argument.
Jane also knows of someone else who's used the zombie solubility argument to deny that we're causing the rise in CO2. In 2008, Dr. Roy Spencer wrote Oceans are Driving CO2 which claims that "The long-term increases in carbon dioxide concentration that have been observed at Mauna Loa since 1958 could be driven more than by the ocean than by mankind’s burning of fossil fuels." In 2009, he wrote Global Warming Causing Carbon Dioxide Increases: A Simple Model.
Dr. Spencer seems to have claimed that the ~200% anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2 increase could actually be less than 50%. How is that significantly different from item #7 on his list of "skeptic" arguments that don't hold water?
Those old blog posts still haven't been retracted. Has Dr. Spencer retracted his incorrect claim that "oceans are driving CO2" elsewhere? Maybe not. It wasn't too unusual when Tom Stone almost accepted that argument #7 was wrong, but reverted just two minutes later. However, it was unusual for Dr. Spencer to say argument #7 was wrong, then say he likes that last quote from Richard Courtney's article: "The existing data is such that the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration can be modeled as being entirely natural, entirely anthropogenic, or some combination of the two. And there is no data which resolves the matter."
Those flip-flops might be why mpainter said Dr. Spencer got clobbered regarding argument #7, which even famous contrarian Dr. Singer refers to using the d-word.
... If carbon dioxide is a culprit, then target carbon dioxide, not carbon. Funny, but I don't hear people talking about "oxygen footprint", even though oxygen, in some concentrations, can be poisonous. Yet it's a component of CO2 also. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-01-21]
.@JunkScience Nobody talks about "oxygen pollution", even though it's a bigger component of CO2 than carbon. CO2 has more oxygen than carbon. But you don't hear anybody talking about "oxygen pollution", do you? Because IT ISN'T. Neither is carbon. [Lonny Eachus, 2014-01-28]
... Funny, you don't hear anybody talking about "Oxygen Pollution", even though oxygen makes up more of CO2 than carbon does... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-02-02]
One reason nobody talks about oxygen pollution is that atmospheric oxygen is decreasing. Why? CO2 outgassed from the oceans comes out as complete CO2 molecules, so that doesn't decrease atmospheric oxygen. But burning carbon uses up oxygen.
At WUWT, Ferdinand Engelbeen cites TAR Fig 3.4 (p206) which plots atmospheric O2 vs. CO2 from 1990-2000. If the rise in CO2 were due to ocean outgassing (or volcanoes) the line would be horizontal because O2 wouldn't decrease. If 100% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 were due to burning carbon, the line would point down at a 45 degree angle because each added CO2 molecule removes an O2 molecule from the atmosphere.
However, notice that the actual line points down at an even steeper angle than 45 degrees. This shows that we're responsible for ~200% of the rise in atmospheric CO2, and that dissolved CO2 (which causes ocean acidification) is increasing despite the warming oceans.
In other words, one way to tell that the CO2 rise is primarily due to burning fossil fuels is precisely that we're burning carbon instead of simply adding CO2 like ocean outgassing or volcanoes would.
I've repeatedly failed to communicate this point, over and over.
... THE ACTUAL DATA from the IBUKI CO2-mapping satellite show that developed "Western" nations are net CO2 absorbers, not emitters. Far more CO2 is generated (and less absorbed in proportion), in the tropics and third-world countries. ... [Jane Q. Public, 2013-10-21]
Nonsense. John O'Sullivan showed the part of Figure 3 with the net fluxes in July 2009 but "forgot" to show the fluxes for the rest of the year. Since July is summer in the northern hemisphere, those trees grow leaves which temporarily removes CO2 from the atmosphere. But this reverses during winter, which might be why John O'Sullivan "forgot" to show those fluxes. "Principia Scientific International" and several others repeated O'Sullivan's misinformation.
Lonny linked to Humlum et al. 2013 which mistakenly claimed that "Changes in ocean temperatures explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980."
A real skeptic would wonder why Humlum et al. analyzed the long-term increase in atmospheric CO2 by taking its time derivative. Differentiation is a high-pass filter because it amplifies high frequency variations and attenuates slow, long-term variations.
Here's why. If A(w) is the amplitude at angular frequency "w", its time dependence is A(w)*exp(i*w*t). Its time derivative is i*w*A(w)*exp(i*w*t). So taking the time derivative multiplies the amplitude by a large "w" for fast frequencies, and multiplies it by a small "w" for slow, long-term frequencies. This amplifies high frequency variations and attenuates slow, long-term variations.
Since our CO2 emissions increase atmospheric CO2 over the long term, Prof. Humlum's analysis can't even detect the rise he claims to be analyzing. However, his method amplifies the faster annual carbon cycle. Prof. Humlum "discovered" summer and winter.
Ferdinand and I and many others failed to communicate that "discovering" the seasons isn't the groundbreaking discovery that many contrarians seem to think.
"Principia Scientific International" (which Anthony Watts calls a "cult" led by John O’Sullivan) is responsible for Humlum et al. 2013. Prof. Humlum is a PSI member with an imaginative website. I agree with Lonny Eachus that he could use a calculus refresher. Prof. Humlum might want to tag along.
Armies of Kool-Aid drinkers can indeed make things difficult at times. There is a difference, though, between these particular Kool-Aid drinkers, and those in Jonestown. In Jonestown, they were all told they were going to a higher place. In this case, they were all told that they are going to a fiery hell if they don't give government control over the very air they breathe. In both cases, there has been a lot of harm to a lot of people. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-03-23]
Global Warming, or AGW as the scientists call it, is nothing more than a political attempt to tax the very air you breathe. [Lonny Eachus, 2013-06-25]
Jane and Lonny aren't the only ones so confused about why CO2 levels are rising that they worry scientists are somehow trying to tax the very air they breathe. Other examples include Rep. John Boehner (R), Sen. James Inhofe (R), Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R), Prof. Richard Tol, "Steven
Goddard", and Steve Lonegan (video).
I've failed to communicate that breathing is like the circulation pump in a pool. It simply can't raise CO2 levels.
This clown car still isn't empty yet. Lord Monckton also uses carbon-14 isotopes to deny that our carbon emissions are causing the rise in CO2. Again, Ferdinand Engelbeen debunks Lord Monckton at WUWT. The crackpot "Not-the-IPCC" report cites Prof. Robert Essenhigh's residence time argument to deny that our carbon emissions are causing the rise in CO2, even though that argument is so wrong that even WUWT author Willis Eschenbach gets it. Heck, Pete Ridley, Burt Rutan and others support Beck’s CO2 "record" which denies the CO2 rise entirely! In fact, contrarians use so many silly and self-contradictory arguments to dispute the cause of rising CO2 that the last satirical "Denial Depot" post is a guide to disputing the cause of rising CO2.
One clown left. After WUWT repeatedly claimed that insects caused the CO2 rise, Anthony Watts couldn't remember those posts. He's not necessarily dishonest. Watts could simply be suffering from amnesia, as in this strangely familiar example:
"Instrumental temperature data for the pre-satellite era (1850-1980) have been so widely, systematically, and unidirectionally tampered with that it cannot be credibly asserted there has been any significant "global warming" in the 20th century." [Anthony Watts, 2010-01-29]
"Sure we've seen an increase in temperature in the last century, I've NEVER said we haven't." [Anthony Watts, 2012-07-07]
Jane, will you retract your misinformation and acknowledge that our carbon emissions are responsible for the CO2 rise, rather than dismissing it as disingenuous? If not, will you at least acknowledge that many people you know of have disputed this fact, including you and Lonny Eachus? Recursively denying your own denial doesn't make the evidence or your misinformation disappear.