Comment Re:Unpossible! (Score 1) 250
Moral of the story: Don't buy Bitcoin 'cause you know it's going to crash again.
This contradicts those who say few have died of COVID.
Not really. "Few" is subjective, and 0.5% of the population is arguably "few" for a pandemic of this nature. I don't think those arguing that deaths have not been "few" are wrong, they're just looking at it a different way.
An interesting note is that the total death count in the US for people less than 50 years old is about 69k. It gets more difficult to argue that that isn't "few".
I read an estimate last year for "life years" lost per Covid-19 death to be about 14 years. If we're at 1 million deaths now, that's 14 millions "life years" lost. This is actually a more meaningful statistic. Any death is unpleasant, but there's a difference between the death of someone with less than 15 years left on the planet versus the death of a young person who has yet to experience their first backache.
One could argue that 14 million "life years" is a lot to lose, even if they were mostly lower qualify-of-life old person and sick person years. I agree. I also agree that, relatively speaking, it's actually quite few.
The Fed might have a few more interest rate raises in them but the huge problem is that the raise in interest rates dramatically affects the payments on the national debt. So realistically I don't even think they can go above 3%.
Do you have any links to articles that delve into the math? The interest payment is staggering already, so it sounds plausible. I'm inclined to repeat this claim, but I'd like to first find out if it's true. I'd love to find out more precisely what rate would likely lead to an imminent default.
I know the interest payment for fiscal year 2022 is $305 billion (according to the official budget), but I don't know the correct assumptions to make to accurately model the effects of rate changes in order to complete the analysis.
The one day you'd sell your soul for something, souls are a glut.