That Gaussian curves are a poor model for unlikely events has been known for quite some time. This is best explained by Nassim Taleb in the following books:

• Fooled by Randomness
• The Black Swan

His main thesis is that the markets are essentially random and are basically impossible to predict in any meaningful way. Further there are unlikely unknown unknowns can cannot be predicted until the they occur, usually with disastrous consequences.

Michael Crichton actually dropped out of medical to become a full time writer. He had a solid understanding of basic science and this is reflected in his books. That said, he wrote science fiction, which means that the science only needed to be good enough to support the story, and not be provably correct.

A common theme in Crichton's books is the human element in technology. The villains in his books are often those who unerringly believe in the application of advanced technology to 'fix everything', without considering the unintended side effects that could occur.

A typical Crichton book starts with some genius who invents an advanced technology, and then all goes to hell as the unintended side affects cascade into near disaster. The conflict is often between the technology itself and normal people who have real trouble dealing with the dangers it causes.

His earlier books are very much better than the later ones. I suspect that Crichton got co-opted by Hollywood once got the contacts to get contracts to write screens plays for big name directors (e.g. Spielberg). You can see the transition, as the later books, like Jurassic Park, are actually written like screen plays.

Crichton wasn't afraid to promote his politics in his books. The Rising Sun has a strong political statement, nearing on the 'Japan Bashing' that was prevalent in the press at the time. It's saving grace was a good plot and some interesting characters. Had he not been so insistent on blowing on his political horn, it would have been a better book.

My biggest disappointment with Crichton was State of Fear. The book was essentially a anti-global warming manifesto. The huge list of bibliographic entries reinforces my opinion that his primary goal was trying to debunk global warming rather than write a fictional work.

Whatever happens, we win! After eight years of the Bush
administration, the world is much worse off, and now that
it's coming to end, much of the rest of the world is going
to collectively sigh with relief.

While Bush & Co. are not directly responsible for the 9-11
attacks, with their hubris and mismanagement, they certainly
succeeded in making a bad situation much worse. Many countries
are suffering due to the US's inept diplomacy and military
policies. The current administration has also been the role
model for many despots, rolling back hard won freedoms in
countries where democracy has yet to set strong roots.

The blame for the recent economic meltdown can also be laid
at Bush's feet. The massive tax cuts and deficit spending,
combined with poor oversight of the financial situation
has led to today's mess. Enron should have warned us about
what was to come.

For me, here in Switzerland, it doesn't really matter who wins,
the main thing is that the current administration is out. It
may actually be better to have a republican president and a
democratic house/senate, in order to prevent the excesses
that are likely to follow if the Democrats gain control of
everything. I seem to remember reading that the US government
functions better when the executive and legislative branches
are controlled by different parties.

Personally, I'm looking forward to a return to multilateralism
and sensible financial policies.

As usual, after a regime change, the pendulum will swing the
other way and, unfortunately, the US tendency is that it will
probably swing too far. So be careful what you wish for!