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Comment Re:More importantly, (Score 3, Insightful) 237

A couple of the Fukushima workers were exposed to some pretty heavy dosages. Only a matter of time for them.

And the statistical nature of exposure and the way radiation does its thing means that it's unlikely but possible for anyone exposed to the initial releases of material, or to material that travelled long distances, can ultimately die from it. Japan's population density is much thicker than almost any other place, so this tiny likelihood becomes a statistically significant likelihood across the larger number.

So it's very likely someone will die from the radiation released by Fukushima, but unlikely anyone will ever be able to connect it conclusively.

Comment Re:Kids, wear that helmet (Score 1) 242

Well, your doctor knew someone who'd had such an injury. Probably several someones.

You never knew them because they were dead or hooked up to a machine in a hospital instead of out and about to meet you.

And bicycle or motorcycle doesn't make a difference. It's not the speed that does you in. It's the fall. Your head hits the ground the same, dropping from 5 feet, either way, and that's what your helmet will be certified for. No lid in the world will do a damn thing to stop your skull from shattering if you go horizontally headfirst into a curb or car or pole at 40 mph, so no lid tries. If you ever heard of anyone surviving that, it was due to luck, not design.

Wear your helmet anyway.

Comment It's bollocks, all the way down. (Score 1) 242

Every one of his objections is something that is actually alleviated by freeing you from the desk-and-keyboard-and-fixed-monitor model of computing.

You can use many positions and orientations when you use mobiles.

And because you're outside and moving around, instead of planted on your pasty, fat, congealing ass all day, you're 27% less likely die of a heart attack.

This is one of those cases where you just want to take someone's diploma away from them.

Comment Re:Do you even bother to edit submissions anymore? (Score 1) 185

You know what's more useful to know?

THE HOUSE ALWAYS HAS THE ADVANTAGE.

The Kelly Criterion only applies to games in which you have an advantage, even if you also have a risk of ruin.

Bayes' rule tells you how much to wager once you know your advantage, not just to keep from losing, but to maximize your statistical win rate. But if your advantage is 0 or negative, wagering anything is throwing money away.

That's why Vegas is the way it is. It can afford to be shiny and solicitious, because there are always people who think they can beat the odds.

Comment Re:it's not as if they can't go fetch some more... (Score 1) 132

Actually, you have it backwards.

The only way we could afford to do that then was politics.

We were willing to spend anything to perform a circus stunt to one-up the rooskies.

The cost of it was astronomical, and the psychological effect was that we believed we really could do anything we wanted. Then we tried to leverage it with 30 years of the shuttle program, but that just became another vast money sink that robbed us of the opportunity to do anything else, and the only thing we could think to do with it after a while was built a permanent nest of tin cans in orbit for it to visit.

Now you can't convince the public to spend a few bucks to get us to Mars, even though it's just the Moon shot with bigger air tanks, more fuel, and astronauts who are tough enough to live in a VW beetle for 8 months. Which is probably the proper political perspective, because what the fuck would we need to put boots on Mars for, other than to say we'd done it? And is that worth the lives we could save here with the money we don't spend by not doing it?

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