Comment Re:Some nice backpedaling there, bud (Score 1) 336
The first bullet point is the required comment found in every pro-AGW story that the IPCC scientists have no clue at all what is going on with the Earth's climate, since their every prediction is wrong.
Quite to the contrary, all assessments in the IPCC report are given with an appropriate levels of "understanding", "confidence", "consensus", and so forth. Some elements have very high degrees of understanding, confidence, and consensus (for example, the direct forcing from CO2). Others do not (for example, the cloudcover feedback response).
Do realize, however, that any errors are just as likely to be *worse* as they are than better. In fact, "worse" has happened notably more often than better -- sea level rise, temperature rise, etc.
For some reason I don't understand the entire incredibly complex system is reduced to a single axis labeled "worse" on one end and "better" on the other
You're treading into a philosophical debate here, but basically, would you consider drought, flood, desertification, disease, pestilence, etc, bad things? Then that's "worse". And it's not so much that there's something inherently bad about a warmer world. To the contrary, warmer world tend to support more biomass and biodiversity. The problem is simply that it's not the world that we, our society, or the rest of the life on this planet are adapted to. Furthermore, the problem is not the change itself, but how rapid it is. We haven't seen change like this since the PETM. Was the Eocene somehow "worse" than the Paleocene? I seriously doubt you could make that claim. But from the perspective of many species alive during the Paleocene, it absolutely was worse. The oceans acidified, climate patterns changed (some irreversibly), whole ecosystems were disrupted. Life itself survived and flourished, but that'd be no comfort to you if your species went extinct.
than the most carefully unphysical computational models suggest.
What are you using "unphysical" for? They're physics sims. In fact, if you look at the code, what's most remarkable is how *few* aspects of the climate system are coded based on statistical observational models or the like. The overwhelming majority of it goes straight back to First Principles.
The third bullet point is pure speculation
The rates of deglaciation are very precisely measured. They're measured over time, so changes are measured to. And the total mass of the ice sheet is well measured. So what part are you calling "pure speculation"?
It is included purely for the scare value, as neither unphysical models nor actual data plausibly suggest that the Greenland icecap is likely to melt in the next 100 years
Totally melt in 100 years? No.
Partially melt in 100 years? Absolutely.
Totally or near-totally melt over hundreds of years? Yes. And if you don't trust models on it, just look at the effect of temperature changes from past glacials on Greenland ice extent. A 2C rise (which was the *goal* of Copenhagen, to limit it to "just" 2C) historically causes a 6-9m sea level rise equilibrium.
Anti-AGW folks are afraid of economic risks, pro-AGW folks are afraid of climate risks.
Climate risks are economic risks. How much do you think it'll cost to live or grow food in the desert southwest, for example, if the Colorado river flow volume declines even further? What do you think pine borer beetles are doing to the timber industry (drought + warmer winters = rapid expansion)? What do you think floods are if not huge economic damage?