Ray Kurtzweil, in "The Singularity is Coming," describes the oversight of many technological estimates due to a misunderstanding of the technological curve. As the rate of technological evolution increases, we become faster and faster at finding innovative solutions to our everyday problems. While 44 percent may be the estimate at our current rate of technological adeptness, by the time 2012 rolls around, I suspect this percentage will be much higher, as our ability to create networked devices (computers, hand held devices, etc) will have increased exponentially (along the current pre-defined curve). As manufacturing cost drops and functionality of a personal device increases, I don't think it's out of line to see all-in-one hand held devices come to fruition pretty soon (they're already popular in Japan). Plus, satellite and cell internet access are getting faster and faster (as well as cheaper and cheaper), making it easier for people to get connected; hence, 44 percent does, in fact seem pretty low.
