Do you trust Adobe to release the new version of Flash for your two year old mobile phone?
Do you trust anyone to release HTML5 support for your 2-year-old mobile phone? Do you trust your mobile OS provider to pay licensing fees to MPEG-LA for your 2-year-old mobile phone?
Apple won't put up with the trouble of using proprietary software.
All signs point to h.264 as the HTML5 video codec of choice. There's nothing non-proprietary about it. It just so happens that Apple is part-owner.
I hate Flash as much as the next coder, but at least it's widely used already, proven to do particular things very well, not caught in the middle of an uncertain future (h.264 vs. Theora vs. VP8), and not currently threatening a patent war, the consequences of which are not yet known but will likely create their own bag of hurt for both developers and consumers.
HTML5 will only be good if it's final implementation is good. The idea behind it is nice, but right now it has a lot of corporate fingers in it, playing for their own interests over yours. It will be a miracle if we can all come out of this without practically renting the web from MPEG-LA.