First off, good post. Secondly, I'll admit that I am not up to date on the latest proposals (which is why i was reading this, actually). That said...
I don't see it the same way. I thought the worry was that the major ISPs would charge the sites for preferential access. So you sign on w/ comcast and cnn is fast but craigslist is slow. Some, like facebook and google, are probably big enough that comcst wouldn't dare charge but there is a large middle ground that would think it is worthwhile marketing to get faster access for comcast customers and would pay the vig.
The problem, in my mind, is that it ups the cost to compete. So the smaller sites, or ones just starting out have a larger burden to overcome.
Because the internet is just pipes, over time, i expect the non prioritized traffic to have such a narrow bandwidth allocation as to approach unusable.
My biggest worry is not that new sites can't flourish, though that is a problem. My biggest worry is that newer protocols and uses for the network will be starved b/c the academics/college kids/bored teenagers/decentralized user groups won't be able to pay.
I don't think we have 'finished' evolving the usages of the network and I think this has a chilling effect on that evolution.
As an aside, all of this would be moot if we had competition at the last mile, which is really what we should be arguing about.