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Comment Re: My Body My Choice except when it isn't (Score 1) 113

Effectiveness of a vaccine depends on whether we speak about preventing infection, preventing any symptomatic disease, or preventing severe illness. So the claim "The vaccine is 39% effective against delta" is not entirely wrong but very misleading. Here is the original source of this number:
"New figures released by the Health Ministry claim that the COVID vaccine is only 39% effective at preventing the transmission of the coronavirus, but more than 91% effective at preventing severe cases."
Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/...

Also effectiveness against infection drops over time:
"The figures also show that among those who were vaccinated in January, there was only a 16% effectiveness against being infected, compared to 44% of those vaccinated in February, 67% of those who received their shots in March, and 75% for those vaccinated in April."
I guess this decline is largely due to decline in the antibody level after 3 months.

At the same time, effectiveness against severe illness remains large same over time:
"The vaccine’s effectiveness at preventing severe cases for those vaccinated in January remains 86%, according to the figures, only slightly lower than those vaccinated in the following months."

Comment Re:Yes, yes (Score 1) 417

Only 47.33% of Florida's population has been fully vaccinated, so it is slightly worse than average but not by much.

It should be noted though that vaccination has modest efficacy in preventing infection (only 64% based on Israel's data), but it is highly efficient in preventing serious ilnesss (efficacy about 93%). IOW, under the same conditions, vaccinated people are about 2.8 times less likely to be infected and 14.3 times less likely to develop severe illness that requires hospitalization.

Comment Re:Darwinism At Work (Score 4, Informative) 417

People with severely compromised immune systems (or suppresed in your son's case) seem to be having better survival rates.

This assertion is not based on any scientific data. All studies that I have seen showed higher mortality rates in organ transplant recipients than in the general population.
For example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

Comment Re:Spaceship One (Score 1) 50

SpaceShipOne was certified as an experimentally aircraft. If you want to take paying customers, you need to certificate it under Part 135 (Charter-Type Services), and apparently they could not do that. So I believe the biggest issue was not going from a 3-seater to a 7-seater, but that the original design was inherently too risky to meet FAA requirements under Part 135.

Comment Re:6 fold reduction in antibodies (Score 1) 94

Thankfully, modification to both mRNA and adenovirus vaccines is fast and easy.

It is easy to modify both of them, but in case of the adenovirus-based vaccines, you have the vector issue, i.e. if you use the same strain as before, you can induce an immune response to the vector instead of the target protein, so efficacy of the vaccine can be very low, and you need another trial to determine it. On the other hand, mRNA vaccines do not have this problem, and they can quickly adopted to a new variant, and we can expect to have the same efficiency as before.

Comment Re:Betteridge's law of headlines (Score 1) 193

Not all vaccines provide sterilizing immunity, so it is quite possible for a vaccine to protect against illness but not infection. Thus, in principle, vaccinated people can spread disease to others. Now, if you spoke about two different vaccines against the same virus, then I agree that is unlikely for one vaccine to protect against disease and infection but for the other one to protect only against disease. However, currently, we don't have any reliable data about any COVID-19 vaccine how it's effective at preventing transmission.

Comment Re:Betteridge's law of headlines (Score 1) 193

So far, smallpox is the only human virus that was eradicated through vaccination. We have good chances to eradicate polio if we put a bit more efforts into it, but I am skeptical about eradication of SARS-CoV-2 any time soon. If you look at four seasonable coronaviruses, most people get re-infected with them every couple years or so (some people can be reinfected after a few months). Whether the re-infection happens due to the waning immune response or viral mutations that allow to avoid the immune response is not exactly clear. In any case, if the vaccine protects you only for a couple years or so (and some can be infected even sooner), it's going to be extremely difficult to eradicate the virus. Also, it can be a natural reservoir in wild animals (such as deer mice, minks, wild cats, etc), which can cause spillback to humans. So it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 will become another endemic coronavirus.

Comment Betteridge's law of headlines (Score 1) 193

Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.

We do not have any reliable data as whether vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. Some preliminary data suggests that the Moderna vaccine has about 65% efficacy in preventing spread. This number is not very reliable, and more studies have been planned to assess how likely for vaccinated people to spread the virus. Therefore, experts say that vaccination people still should wear a mask and practice social distancing until we get better data.

As to severe cases, it has been reported: "There were 10 severe cases of COVID-19 observed in the trial, with nine of the cases occurring in the placebo group and one in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group. "
https://www.pfizer.com/news/pr...
The simple math gives you efficacy in preventing a severe COVID about 89%. However, because number of severe cases is so small, the confidence interval is rather large, so it is plausible that the vaccine has more than 95% efficacy in preventing severe COVID, but we don't have scientific data to claim that, let alone saying that it is "essentially 100 percent".

Comment Re:History already records a failure (Score 4, Informative) 263

Australia closed its boarders for all non-resident on March 20 and introduced a mandatory supervised quarantine on March 27. I think it helped a lot to contain the first wave, because when you have international travelers, who introduce new infection, it is difficult to do contact tracing and quarantine exposed individuals before they spread the virus to others.

Then in response to the Melbourne outbreak, Victoria underwent a second lockdown, which lasted almost four months. Interstate borders were closed, then 5km radius restriction was added, on top of all other restrictions on social gathering. I don't think any other Western country underwent a second lockdown that would be so strict and so long.

Comment Re:Vaccine may be unnecessary (Score 1) 263

There are two tests. One for the virus itself, and one for the antibodies. The latter tests whether someone has ever had the disease.

The antibody level tends to wane over time. According to one study in the UK: "Antibody prevalence fell from 6% of the population around the end of June to 4.4% in September."
https://www.biospace.com/artic...

Long-term immunity depends on antigen-specific memory B cells (which can quickly produce antibodies when necessary) and specialized T-cells (which recognize and kill infected cells). Unfortunately, there is no simple test for them.

Comment Re:If at first you don't succeed... (Score 4, Insightful) 557

As Mark Twain said once: "it's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." There are people who can never admit that they are wrong under any circumstances, because it would be too much blow to their self-esteem. I think such people form the core of the Trump cult, and like with any other cult, the more efforts they invest in certain beliefs, the more difficult for them to alter those beliefs. Moreover, when they are exposed to information that clearly challenges their beliefs, they often strengthen their original belief. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

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