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Comment Re:China please (Score 1) 159

Maybe. I also look at the history of Europe and see even "independent" countries at war continuously for centuries. People are generally just dicks. Some blame it on colonialism or religion or a number of other things, but I think tribalism is inherent and something that we need to actively fight.

Comment Re:China please (Score 1) 159

I don't worry one wink about the US and China going to war directly - as you say, a nuclear deterrent is a hell of a thing.

But I do see possible scenarios where China asserts itself over large sections of the Asian Pacific region with only token opposition from the US - simply because the US would no longer have the same relative capacity to respond effectively. Why actively defend Taiwan if it means losing much of your Pacific fleet and air force, leaving Japan vulnerable. Why inject yourself into local drama surrounding the South China sea for the same reasons?

Then again, you do mention BRICS, and the Russia and India part of that are not necessarily going to sit idle as their neighbor rises militarily. Russia is already at more or less their peak militarily, but India could yet grow legs.

Comment Re:China please (Score 1) 159

They certainly won't be unopposed. But is the US going to go all-in against an equal to defend Taiwan? How about the South China sea? China will take what it wants from that region if the current regime remains in power.

That's a big "if". If China's economy grows to rival or exceed the US, that implies a richer, more educated populace that might not be happy with their lack of freedoms. An economic decline of any size could send the government into crisis.

Comment Re:Dumb (Score 1) 145

This assumes a couple of things:
1. That you will consistently have cycles of "good times" and "bad times".
2. That you will know when you are having a good time or a bad time.

If you master #2 in particular, you will be a very rich man. This is analogous to "timing the market" in investing, and it is a very difficult art.

Comment Re:Is this your point? (Score 1) 472

it has done nothing of significant value for the citizens here.

That's a bold claim. I recognize that a significant portion of the population has fallen out (down) of the middle class, and I fully agree that we need to address that as a major problem. At the same time, you seem to be ignoring the roughly half of the middle class that has moved up into "upper middle". The typical H1B position is not going to someone who has fallen out of the middle class - it's going to someone who has a good technical education with modern skills. Those people are not the ones struggling at the moment.

If you allow a glut of cheap semi-slave Indian labor to enter the market

We are talking about an almost paltry number of people (less than 100,000 per year in a country of 160,000,000 workers. I think I could argue that H1B does not even have a statistical significance, but we are arguing on ideology, so lets have at it.

So here's the problem. You have signed a trade agreement which allows free movement of goods and free movement of capital. Capital that would normally have been spent domestically moves outside, and in exchange we get goods. But what happens to the workers who once made those goods? They certainly can't go to India to pursue those jobs. And Indians in sweatshop jobs can't say "screw this" and move to a nice US factory. We have artificially created an imbalance, and it is screwing with the free market. H1B is certainly not the only way to fix this (in fact, as I point out above it probably is not even having a significant effect) - but it is better than doing nothing. I think free trade is probably better for everyone in the long run, but I strongly feel that these agreements need to take into account things like ecological protections and worker standards. But I digress...

you're essentially advocating for the circumstances to push the middle class towards the lowest common denominator.

No, that's how you are framing my argument. My goal is to keep the US economy dynamic, competitive, and efficient so that it continues to punch above its weight and raises the standard of living for all.

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