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Comment Re:Not the OP, but a physics-based criticism. (Score 1) 1057

What mistakes - specifics examples from his 2005 paper please? It's not at all a convincing argument, and bad form to boot, to just make accusations without backing them up. From the information I can find - 'MBH98 and MBH99 were found to be "somewhat obscure and incomplete" and the criticisms by McIntyre and McKitrick were found to be "valid and compelling" ' - the ad homiem attacks, common theme of accusations of either Conspiracy Of Marketing Firms, or Crackpots Believing In Conspiracy Of Climate Scientists, and general vitriol is a substitute for good theories and data. People that "see" "hidden agendas" in others' work tend to discredit themselves, especially when they can't support it with evidence.

Why is it *so* important that policy be enacted immediately? The human race has a long history not fully understanding nature - if the consequences are *so* dire, then we should be very careful we don't muck things up even more. If it's completely unreasonable to have some rigor, because of looming catastrophe, a "tipping point", where is the data that supports this idea?

You seem to be confused about my questions involving standard deviation and experiments - if you're uncertain about what I'm saying, just say what you don't understand, and I'll clarify it for you. Here they are again, as simple as I can make them.

My specific claim about standard deviation is that no one has taken the observed temperature readings, and calculated the standard deviation from that, for 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year. If you've read a paper which has this value, please provide a quote, and link.

"I want to know what the observed experimental data is, from a ~10 meter tube, or the observed atmosphere, or such, not computer models" - the absorption spectrum of CO2 is measured by a spectrometer over ~1cm, I think it's important to have done the (simple) experiment that would verify we know how CO2 behaves over longer distances, if it's a fundamental part of our models.

The derivation is available at the wikipedia article on Adiabatic Lapse Rate, you can find data for the atmosphere of Venus, and the least square algorithm there as well. All the other numbers are accepted values of physical constants. The equation is independent of planet, besides dependence on g, and the value for Earth is 9.8C/km, from the wikipedia article. I don't understand what you consider short-hand - if you don't understand the derivation then you need to pick up a copy of Kittel and Kroemer, Thermal Physics. It's rather disingenuous to expect me to provide a simpler derivation, but you surely can plug in numbers, do the least squares, and check that I wasn't lying about the numbers I gave.

Comment Re:The Administration modded this guy troll too! (Score 1) 1057

You're aware that spectrometry gives the absorption spectrum, a distribution of the %saturated for a particular wavelength. So, you don't get to just magically throw some equations together and have the right answer, you need to notice the not so subtle fact that spectrometers give answers that are correct *only* for ~1cm path length. I'd suggest you pick up some physics books rather than reciting talking points, or even doing the experiment, but that's only if you care about looking like an idiot.

Comment Re:Not the OP, but a physics-based criticism. (Score 1) 1057

I keep hearing accusations of dishonesty Re:McIntyre and conspiracy theories, but can't find any concrete claims. The shear amount of vitriol on, say realclimate, leads me to believe that they aren't based on evidence, along with climatologists playing the martyrs, and more along the lines of "who the hell does this guy think he is, questioning *our* science when he's a journalist."

Yes, it holds on Earth (I dunno the max height, prob ~10km), and sufficiently dry. The equations for Venus and Earth are the same, just plug in g, M, gamma, you understand what a differential equation describes, right? It's from meteorology, and is why IPCC models with hydrostatic equilibrium can't simulate clouds. "The varying environmental lapse rates throughout the earth's atmosphere are of critical importance in meteorology, particularly within the troposphere." What this equation says, for both Venus and Earth, is that Pressure is sufficient to create a "livable" Earth.

Assuming Claugh & Iacono (1995) is anything like (2000), I want to know what the observed experimental data is, from a ~10 meter tube, or the observed atmosphere, or such, not computer models. From physics classes, I know how easy it is to screw up a derivation, and that's just undergrad not research. Computer modeling is something, that to regard with anywhere near the same certainty as a derivation, I'd need to at least see the data it predicts implicitly or explicitly.

Standard deviation of temperature, let's say global average. I'm lead to believe (thermometer) temperature records go back at least ~100 years, and are recorded daily. Why isn't the Sqrt(1/N Sum (x_i-mew) ) value used to show the natural variability, and provide hard, experimental evidence for weather->average->climate. This is just basic science, and by not doing it, and absolutely refusing to share data, they end up coming off like jerks that haven't done their due diligence, at best.

I'm not interested in the IPCC models for 3 reasons (1) somewhat vague predictions (at least no one's given a variable that will be statistically outside the observed average), (2) poor documentation and poor "numeric/physical rigor" (see lapse rate and clouds, among others), and (3) I need to check into Douglass et al, and what Santer et al says, but the general level of vitriol, ad homiems, and basic lack of understanding of simple scientific principles, like making it easy to duplicate your work, does not fill me with hope; see absurdity comparing quotes below.

"We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. There is IPR to consider. - Phil Jones"

"Professor Eddington's analysis of photographs of a solar eclipse confirmed the correctness of Einstein's equations. When asked by colleagues at the November 19th Royal Society Meeting to produce the data to support his claims regarding Einstein's theory Eddington replied, "Giving them the equations and source code would be giving in to the intimidation tactics that these people are engaged in," he added " We have 1000's of hours of time invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?"

Comment Re:Not the OP, but a physics-based criticism. (Score 1) 1057

It was basically an argument that *most* of the warmth of Venus, is explainable by known thermodynamics, and it fits the data. (I was further hoping that at least some first principles radiative transfer calculations would be offered, experimental data link, or something besides a jumble of equations or model)

In no particular order: Earth, it predicts somewhat well, around the latent condensation level it diverges. Mars, no known atmospheric measurements to test (based on height/pressure). That equation is the dry adiabatic lapse rate, so depending on the humidity, you'd have to use the moist version.

As the moist adiabatic lapse rate equation demonstrates, yes, water vapor has a significant effect on atmospheric thermodynamics. I would like to know, quantitatively about feedback, the length of CO2 in the atmosphere, clouds, and many other processes, either from first principles, or experiment (like what is the decrease in transmission for various wavelengths for say a ten meter insulated tube with various atmospheres, is it still logarithmic over atmospheric distances?), and somewhat fundamentally, the calculated standard deviation of the weather for 1 year, 2 years, etc.

I don't believe there's a conspiracy. I do believe that the accuracy of the models has been greatly oversold, and the problems rationalized, and this "over-investment" has led to the claims about X caused by climate change, ad homiem attacks, and general poor state of understanding of the science, exemplified by "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. There is IPR to consider." - Phil Jones

Comment Re:The Administration modded this guy troll too! (Score 1) 1057

I'll repeat, "where are the "sound, repeatable, demonstrable, falsifiable, testable" *experiments* to check that yes, our theory about how CO2 behaves in the atmosphere (or rather "toy atmosphere", for testing), is brilliantly confirmed by observations?" Or, to be perfectly precise, where is the experiment with (1) an insulated tube with various mixes of gases you wish to test (and various lengths), (2) a radiation/light source of variable wavelengths, and (3) measurements of radiation at both ends.

If spectrometry and the radiative forcing equation apply, they accurately predict the experiment, then congrats, you can use those equations. Physics equations aren't magic, and it's dishonest to misrepresent your argument with them without experiment or derivation for confirmation, just as it's dishonest to claim it's settled science, and make ad homiem attacks, when you haven't actually done the fundamental experiment, and it's fraud when you attempt to use intimidation by consensus.

Fortunately, nature has been kind enough to provide us with Venus. The adiabatic lapse rate (convective heat transport in the atmosphere) = dT/dz = -Mg/R*(y-1)/y = ~7.82K/km (I was lazy and used 100% CO2 for this, also y = gamma) which isn't too far off from the ALR calculated from measurements using least squares = ~7.74K/km. Surprise, we have experimental evidence that Venus, a planet with ~20,000X (92atm, ~96% CO2) the concentration of CO2 is quite explainable without resort to vague computer models.

As for newscientist:
Chaos does not disappear by averaging, no matter how many time you repeat it, the averaged N-S equations are just as hard to solve as the instantaneous, and iterating a crude weather model far past the point where it is valid does not magically make climate pop out. The only way you can predict a chaotic system is if it's periodic (or quasi-periodic), and then you have to determine the boundary conditions.
Still waiting on the natural variability of climate calculated from observations, a quantitative reason when weather turns to climate, and (correct) model predictions, say 3 standard deviations (or some equivalent probability) outside natural variability.

All in all a mess of non sequiturs, fuzzy sciencey analogies, and basic lack of understanding of math and physics, as well as the complexities of numerics. You probably should work on learning something about science, instead of just parroting terms and equations if you don't want to look foolish/dishonest. But then again, cargo cult science rarely figures out why planes don't land.

Comment Re:if i remember well from high school chemistry (Score 1) 248

The jars are essentially in thermal equilibrium because of their size, they are sealed, therefore, hot air doesn't expand and rise, no convection. Simple thermodynamics.

As for the greenhouse effect and convection, assuming CO2 has the warming power attributed to it, Venus would probably be a good place for some clear effects to show. However, the adiabatic lapse rate (convective heat transport in the atmosphere) = dT/dz = -Mg/R*(y-1)/y = ~7.82K/km (I was lazy and used 100% CO2 for this, also y = gamma) which isn't too far off from the ALR calculated from measurements using least squares = ~7.74K/km. Note that this only depends on molar mass, gravitational acceleration, gas constant, and specific heat capacity, so we may safely conclude that the greenhouse effect is caused by pressure. HTH HAND

Comment Re:Not the OP, but a physics-based criticism. (Score 1) 1057

Venus' atmosphere is ~96.5% CO2, and it is claimed that the surface temperature is due to a runaway greenhouse effect. As the barometric equation and adiabatic lapse rate only depend on molar mass, specific heat capacity, and gravitational acceleration, and provides a good fit to the data, by occam's razor (a useful tool in evaluating the information content/probability of a scientific theory being right), it seems safe to assume that CO2 greenhouse gas theory is greatly overstated, and the narrow focus on CO2 is harmful because it takes money away from research into more important environmental problems.

(the 33K warming if the earth that makes life possible is attributed to CO2/greenhouse effect, which got me interested in the physics of the problem, but it seems to be much more likely to be caused by convection+ideal gas law+pressure (as a sorta intuitive explanation of the physics) )

Comment Re:Lunatic Fringe (Score 1) 1057

I agree that conspiracy theorists have delusions of grandeur. What you fail to notice is the conspiracy claims by the AGW people, along with other kneejerk ad homiem attacks if you dare to ask them for predictions, say 2000-2100, including standard deviations of both observed climate and models(*). "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" does not follow "vast body of reviewed and verified climate change literature", because that literature has fallen into the groupthink of models being reality.

But, I wouldn't want to trouble you to take the time to do actually science and do experiments, especially because that would conflict with your precious messiah complex.

(*)It's rather pathetic that the level of competence in doing science is so low that this is regarded as a crackpot claim, but that's more of a problem with "science is a pile of facts, especially those that make me feel superior" crowd.

Comment Re:Did anybody read his paper? (Score 1) 1057

Ah, thank you for explaining that. I was wondering why climate models were contrary to observations and basic physics, but now I see that they aren't based on physics, so it's wrong to evaluate them on that merit.

Or it could be that "scientific credentials" are based on, you know, actually *doing* science, and providing predictions instead or narratives and whining "it's complex and hard and statistical and computer magic".

Comment Re:Did anybody read his paper? (Score 1) 1057

Comment Re:Oh this "best fit" (Score 1) 1057

I hope you're aware that a chaotic system is chaotic on *all* time scales, and that "averaging", over time and space to create a "global temperature" does not make it any less chaotic, it merely "hides" the chaos that *will* reappear given sufficient time.

Arguing that yes, weather is unpredictable, but climate is not through the miracle of averaging is pure intellectual dishonesty, especially given that climate models are basically just crude weather models run for an extended time.

The only way you're going to be able to predict climate is to determine the (variable) boundary conditions, which include, but are not limited to, solar output, orbital position and position in galaxy, albedo which includes clouds and land use, and emissivity with its associated factors, along with determining the heat capacity of the atmosphere (to determine *when* weather becomes climate), oceans, and such, and possibly heat from the earth's core into the atmosphere.

Comment Re:The free market? (Score 1) 1057

You're aware that the AMA and the govt *heavily regulate* the health care system and doctors, and is quite possibly the least free market good there is. Look at what it takes for a foreign doctor to be able to *legally* practice in the US. (Free) markets are not the solution the everything though, and neither is some vague notion of "regulation": what's needed is some proper regulation, that actually, say, improves quality of healthcare, as opposed to just more politicians pandering.

Comment predictions and standard deviations (Score 1) 1057

Is it so unreasonable to ask that the *observed* standard deviation of global temperature be calculated, and then model prediction (along with their own standard deviation) be graphed, from 1900-2100 as that is the range they are claimed to be valid for.

If they can actually predict something with the degree of certainty they imply, they wouldn't have to make so many ad homiem attacks and could just go with "hypothesis non fingo".

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