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JournalJournal: Android for Raspberry Pi4

More or less every day I visit the Raspberry Pi home page to see if there is any new information on when the allegedly-mostly-working Android 4 will be released, and every day there isn't. As far as I know, Broadcom is the holdup. This does not give me confidence in Broadcom...

JournalJournal: Correlation and Causation23

tepples wrote:

Correlation implies 25% likelihood of causation. Either A causes B, B causes A, C causes A and B, or chance.

In this post, Immerman wrote:

I *hate* seeing statistics abused. A 25% likelihood of causation is *not* implied. Yes, one of the four outcomes must be the case, but you don't know the relative probabilities of each. It's like grabbing a marble out of a bag containing red, green, blue, and yellow marbles - there's only four possibilities as to which color your marble is, but for all you know I filled the bag with blue marbles and just threw in a handful of the other colors, in which case it would be preposterous to claim a 25% chance of getting a red one.

I'm aware of the hyperbole in my illustration. They're probably not equally probable, but absent other evidence, one has to assume so. My point is that just because the probability isn't 100 percent doesn't mean it can always be treated as 0 percent. So if you want to plead false cause more effectively, explain why they're not equally probable. Be willing to discuss what further observations would be needed to show which of the four possibilities is most likely. But don't say "correlation does not imply causation" as if it were "correlation implies lack of causation" without providing evidence, as that's close to the fallacy fallacy and the black or white fallacy.

This discussion has been automatically archived. Discussion continues in Daniel Dvorkin's journal.

JournalJournal: What can be done about the Microsoft astroturfers?8

Is there indeed anything we can do about the new cadre of Microsoft astroturfers with modpoints? Is it just time to finally give up. I can't imagine that they haven't actually paid their way in.

JournalJournal: Good large-format inkjet with continuous inking?

I am looking for a large-format inkjet with continuous inking that is suitable for printing poster prints and the like. Ideally it would have both Linux and Windows support, preferably through a standard protocol, but this is not an absolute necessity. What IS a necessity is the ability to install a continuous inking system for making these large prints, and being able to change inks. I am biased towards Epson or Canon but I want good advice, not just biased.

Copyright is not a natural right, and if it had been instituted in its current form (denial of copying, as opposed to forced copying) two thousand years earlier we'd probably be at least a thousand years behind where we are now.

JournalJournal: Strategy games that don't cheat?3

OK, I know AI is hard (no pun intended) but are there any strategy games out there that don't cheat on any but the lowest levels? Haven't tried Civ V yet, but IV is just another case of easy easy easy IMPOSSIBLE to me... I just can't muster the interest to outsmart a computer program written to cheat against me.

JournalJournal: Continuous servos?5

I want some continuous servos. Should I buy or hack? What's good to buy if I just want to do that? Double-BB and metal gear would both be nice.

JournalJournal: Anyone know who did UPS' website?5

I would like them to be informed that they are douchewaffles. Even the whole sign-in/password recovery system feels like something running on a 3270.

JournalJournal: Why I'm not playing Evochron Mercenary

The trial is two days, so I didn't want to start it, and now I've removed it for disk space, and probably won't bother to reinstall. Let this be a lesson to you, limited-time trials are for fucking idiots.

JournalJournal: Monsanto == Murder2

From Dioxin-contaminated Agent Orange to corn even rats can't eat, Monsanto wants you dead.

Fantastic.

JournalJournal: Oh Steam, how do I hate thee4

Let me count the ways... I just want to uninstall a game, I don't want to update Steam. I need that disk space back now, not tomorrow.

JournalJournal: why do the democrats keep spamming me5

They solicited me several times to go to expensive dinners I can't afford, and now they want me to buy "which mitt" mugs. Is it a plot to attempt to drive me to the republican party? It's not going to work, I'll vote third party this time no matter what.

JournalJournal: RJ;DR.2

Here's your chance to do something for the web. When a story is posted that requires javascript, JUST SAY NO.