My kid watches Dora now. He will move to something else in a year. I only need one hour a day of content I want to carefully feed to my children. I don't like the TV. Just the commercials are a risk, and not being available exactly were I want the content (tablet? phone?), and when I want it, is also a downside for the cable companies. For me the comparison is more like:
- Pay $50 or more in cash
- Bundle with Internet and phone so switching cost is higher
- Try to lock me into something that will pike next year
- Make $20 more on ads that cost me $300 for what my time is worth (if i where a coach potato)
- Pay $22 (2+Streaming)
- Get 10-12 movies a month blu ray to watch on 120" screen/projector
- Get enough good content for kids / 1 hour a day at most
- Instant Play lesser know movies that I would have never bought, experience on cinema or rented (and that in many cases where great finds)
- Instant Play movies I wanted to watch, maybe 15% of what I would like but for $8 a month who cares (I would pay more for better movies, even if no blockbusters are to be found, just get the underdogs in)
- Avoid buying DRMs movies locked to 1 software (like Vudu)
Now, I do see problems because there's no throttle like the mail service has. There should be. people consuming more, contribute less per movie or show. And the studios do not like the prospect of a Netflix that is growing and cannot command more rates per view. I say By Mail worked because (among other things) it had a limit. If I could have 5,000,000 at a time at $8 a month (say having all movies released on DVD/BR that Netflix has by Mail), as a studio, I would say this is not sutainable and Netflix is a dead end for me content creator. But at options like 8, 15, 22 and 30 a month for $8, $15, $22 and $30 a month, then as a studio, I would say then maybe this model is viable. And if Netflix shares a % of that, some studios will see more value, and more content avaiable. After all, it's better to have 5x the sales at 50% the price to the user, than 1x at 100%.
Will the 22 million users that Netflix has buy that model? I would if they have a very generous selection to pick from. Many would not. But it would be the equivalent of the Mail service that I like so much. They could charge me more for HD streaming as well (like Blu ray costs a bit more). Some people do not use it, so why charge them more? All in all, I hope Netflix does well AND does the right thing. The alternative is the "good" old $3 per movie rental, $12-25 per movie (with incompatible DRM systems that may disappear tomorrow) or the proven "channel" approach full of ads by the cable companies. If would prefer the Netflix 2.0 I described.
Anyway, for now, Netflix is the best option for me and ...Verizon, I am sending the DVR back in about a month and may look at switching internet provider if not offered something reasonable.