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Comment Re:Lottery scratch tickets; not so random (Score 1) 166

but this guy can tell which scratch tickets will pay off by by reading their serial numbers, winning wasn't as improbable as one is led to believe

CSB:

Well, the winning and losing lots had been prepared separately and, not thinking about it and lacking the direct comparison, the teachers in charge of the two groups had been unaware that their staplers were loaded with silver- and copper-colored staples respectively.

So by looking at the color of the staples, you were able to pick only winners out of the open bowls.

That required one to look at the paper squares, I can go one better.

A new computer store had a drawing for an Osborn, I put in a slip in hopes of a win (duh).

I had high hopes so showed up for the drawing. A family was there just looking; they asked the teen daughter if she would pick out a slip. Surprised and fairly embarrassed she reached in and pulled out a wad of paper and the winner.

Since that day I've crumple up any drawing entry to make it larger and more accessible.

At a elementary school event they had a drawing for something, I filled out and crumpled a slip for my youngest son. He won a fairly expensive lego jet you constructed (Model), the top prize.

I told my other son this story long ago, a few years ago he won a new Dell laptop from a crumpled entry he filled out killing time in a line.

(Grin)

Comment Re:Lottery scratch tickets; not so random (Score 1) 166

The link is old so I imagine the serial number gig has been fixed (yet I have no clue one way or the other), but supports the improbability disclaimer.

While this may be interesting to some, it has very little to do with TFA.

TFA is arguing that random events are often more probable than we might think, because we often fail to take the context of an event into account.

Most of the scenarios in TFA are variations on the "birthday paradox," which basically amounts to people looking at an event X with a very tiny probability P in a specific case, and assuming that P is the probability it would happen. But we often forget that there are Q number of combinations or situations that would all result in X being true... so P is a gross underesimate of the probability of X.

Your link deals with a poorly designed computer algorithm that actually isn't random which is spitting out lottery tickets. The scratch-ticket system has to make money, so the numbers can't be entirely random -- they must only payout so many tickets within a given batch. The guys who designed the computer system that chooses the numbers didn't take into account that there were statistical clues that could allow someone to "crack the code" to the fake randomness.

There are two completely different phenomena. Finding a flaw in pseudo-randomness is completely different from miscalculating odds of genuinely random events.

Accepted.

Comment Sad the lie we've been fed and beleive (Score 1) 357

You know the deal in Russia and other parts of the world one has to have papers to travel and show papers to cross boarders, living in America we're smug in the fact were free to travel where ever we want, whenever we want. Which many do in fact still believe . Any time, any where in the US anybody can be pulled over and required to produce their papers (being at the least a license or it's alternative. If your found without one can be jailed or less that X amount of monies (differs in each area) you can be jailed for vagrancy.

You don't even need to of done anything wrong, Any time, any where in the US anybody can be pulled over for a safety check.

Comment Re:Flu came from horses? (Score 1) 118

I've heard of Avian bird flu, the Swine Pig Flu, the Hantavirus Mouse flu and now finally the Equus Bronco Bronchial Tube Flu.

While I see this study with some reservations FTA:
According to Worobey, the newly generated evolutionary trees show a global replacement of the genes in the avian flu virus coinciding closely with the horse flu outbreak, which the analyses also reveal to be the closest relative to the avian virus.

So your call, is the relative a parent or child. The evolutionary trees mentioned show nothing that can be called useful.

Comment Lottery scratch tickets; not so random (Score 4, Interesting) 166

Very interesting article on it http://www.lotterypost.com/new... been a long time since I've read it (bookmark), but this guy can tell which scratch tickets will pay off by by reading their serial numbers, winning wasn't as improbable as one is led to believe - and yes, of course he's a statistician.

I don't play the lottery, maybe a ticket twice a year, but my son likes the scratch tickets, I told him that they were predictable, he refused to listen; he wouldn't even pick up the link I printed out. He refused to imagine that it wasn't anything but random. It was just an odd reaction, I can't begin to explain the reasoning behind it.

The link is old so I imagine the serial number gig has been fixed (yet I have no clue one way or the other), but supports the improbability disclaimer.

Comment Re:Won't happen anytime soon. (Score 1) 65

I've never ever encountered a REAL knowledgeable hacker in the police force, not even in their cybercrime division. This is due to the fact that most of them, are schoolboys who have a degree in computer science & programming...unfortunately - the most difficult stuff, can't be taught in classes, this comes from YEARS of actual real-life practice and experience.

And there it is, and why the civilian force will always be ahead of the curve.

Submission + - Dear Asus router user: All your Cloud are belong to us (arstechnica.com)

Trax3001BBS writes: ARS is running an article about a vulnerability of ASUS routers that are becoming very popular at the moment -like connected USB devices being open to the world.

According to Lovett, the weakness affects a variety of Asus router models, including the RT-AC66R, RT-AC66U, RT-N66R, RT-N66U, RT-AC56U, RT-N56R, RT-N56U, RT-N14U, RT-N16, and RT-N16R..a when using AiCloud or FTP

-and this old news, come new again-
I have the AC66U router, but with the Asuswrt Merlin ROM http://www.lostrealm.ca/tower/... that took care of this vulnerability long ago. (Number 17) http://blog.ittoby.com/2013/01...

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