I didn't think the point was that obfuscated. Lets see how much i can dumb it down for you. I have no belief in the boogie monster. I use the notion of one to control the behavior of small children in an attemp to keep them safe at time they cannot be directly supervised.
But i find it strange that you fail in the examples you point to. For instance, smoking and cancer. Less than 10% of life long smokers will get cancer from smoking. Less than 30% of all cancer deaths are from smoking. One time won't get pregnan if it is the right time. Commonly called the rythm method, timing sexual encounters against the menstral cycle is one of the oldest and effectiver forms of birth control.
As for god making sure your business works, thats one of the dumbest thing i ever heard. Most all religions teach a principle that god helps those that help themselves. In other words, god will not make a business work, you have to do that. So it seems your rant is all about your ignorance.