Who knows? These sort of experiments are tremendously costly in terms of cash, lives, and the political aftermath. But the current state of thinking, among those who do that sort of thing for a living. Is that this is not the case. Nor has it been the case for the most part since the aircraft carrier became the staple of US military power projection. Getting missile platforms within range of a carrier battle group, and then getting those missiles (Generally these things are the size a small airplane ) a target lock on the carrier, then those missiles flying to the target (Through a hail of missiles and at the end point-defense gunfire) and getting a hit. Don't forget quite powerful and active ECM, Chaff etc.
So it certainly doesn't seem to be an open and shut case. Now at the start of the war, the "bad guys" may get to start off close the carrier, and maybe they've got visual spotters, or electronic eyes on the target, think about those Soviet trawlers that used to sail around looking at the US navy during the cold war. Maybe that opening day a shot gets lucky. But probably not.