Some percentage of voters will vote for her as long as she always says, "I'm a Christian and I oppose abortion". One of my coworkers is like that. With Bush, someone else people said was, "At least he always did what he said he was going to do" even if this is not true.
Some people like a simple, straightforward person, who they think is honest. She's a real life Forest Gump, with some heavy duty Americana, Christianity, and "we're always right" and "bomb the living hell out of them" mixed in.
But I don't think she can win a primary, and I don't think she can beat Obama. They will tell her what to say, and give her a hidden wire for the debates, but I still think she will flub things. People ultimately concluded that Bush was not quite as dumb as he came across.
With Palin, it's pretty obvious that she's an idiot. It reminds of Michigan, in 2006, Dick DeVos vs. Jennifer Granholm. People were really unhappy with Granholm but terrified of DeVos. The republican should have won. But because it was DeVos, Granholm actually won re-election. Of course, the rest of the country is not all like Michigan....