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Comment Re:Greater Fool Theory (Score 5, Insightful) 135

It can take a long time though, and while you're riding the upwards curve and selling slowly you can make a lot of money. The thing that people always forget when they read about the tulip bubble and he wall street crash is that as many people became rich as went bankrupt. It's a zero-sum game, so every dollar someone loses will be won by someone else. In many ways, it resembles a poker game where both players are bluffing. Eventually either one will fold or they'll call and whoever has the higher card will win.

I have not speculated on bitcoin, because I don't have any confidence that I can predict the inflection point well enough to find a greater fool before it does.

Comment Re:SAT & ACT don't measure competency (Score 1) 180

The test had little to nothing to do with what she learned in high school or what she's learning in college right now

Note that this is intentional. The SAT is intended as an aptitude test. As such, it is intended to measure your ability as independent of knowledge and learned skills as possible. This is obviously impossible, but tests like the SAT and IQ tests try to get as close as they can. Unfortunately, it is often possible with such tests to learn for a particular style of test (and you can't significantly change the style without compromising reliability). There's some research that indicates that you get much more useful information by making people take a lot of these tests and comparing their best and worst marks, but that is not normally practical.

Comment Re:Can they be that stupid? (Score 1, Funny) 348

Maybe they own Apple stock. If they're clever, then they bought a load of Apple shares, announced that Apple devices were too secure for them to be able to crack but that all of their competitors' devices weren't, and then waited for the media to pick this up before selling their shares.

Comment Re:Grab some popcorn (Score 2) 430

Please don't make arguments like that, because that's exactly the same flawed logic that climate change deniers use. All this tells you is that something in your local climate has changed. The global warming argues that pumping large amounts of energy into the atmosphere as a result of an increase in the greenhouse effect will result in either a new equilibrium condition or a more chaotic global climate. Both going from never snowing to snowing each year or going from snowing each year to never snowing are consistent with this hypothesis, but for local climates they're also explainable by a number of other mechanisms. To either support or contradict a hypothesis like global warming, you need to look at global data.

Comment Re:Can alcoholics sue a distillery now? (Score 1) 430

A better analogy would be a tobacco company. Can a smoker sue a tobacco company that covered up reports of health damage as a result of smoking and continued to sell their products without any health warnings for decades after they became aware that they cause cancer and death? The answer, by the way, is yes and they have done so successfully.

Comment Re:First (Score 1) 72

Microsoft does this with Azure. Their EU operation is run by a separate company, so they cannot be compelled to hand over data to US law enforcement because they have a complete separation and no one in Microsoft has access to the data in the first place (at least, in theory). I believe the other big cloud providers have similar things, because otherwise they can't sell hosting to any company that needs to comply with the GDPR (i.e. anyone in the EU).

Comment Re:Automate it (Score 4, Informative) 409

It's difficult to do. The gerrymandered districts will have a similar number of people in them, but that's not the problem. Imagine you have 10,000 people voting for teams A and B, with a 50:50 split. It's possible to arrange 10 districts where each one will have 500 A voters and 500 B voters, but it's also possible to have 8 districts with 600 A voters and 400 B voters and two districts with 100 A voters and 900 B voters. In the first configuration, you'll end up with some tough campaigns and probably average 5 A seats and 5 B seats. In the second, you'll always have 8 A seats and 2 B seats. That's the essence of gerrymandering: you distribute your voters to maximise the number of seats.

You can automate creating constituencies with even numbers, but that's also biased. The real solution is to move away from single-representative constituencies and closer to an electoral system where every vote counts.

Comment Re:Too little, too late (Score 1) 121

How many of those users are actually committing code? I've gone to SF a few times recently to look at the code for orphaned projects and see if they're worth reviving, but that's about it. I'd love to see some serious competition to GitHub, but I'm not convinced that SF is in a position to provide it. GitHub at least has a solid business model (get people hooked on the free service, then sell them various degrees of hosted service).

The main advantage for a project using GitHub is the network effect. I have a couple of things hosted there and get a lot of interaction with users via the issue trackers, because the barrier to entry is tiny. Similarly, these days I am far more likely to report a bug if the project is on GitHub, because I already have an account and it's easy.

Comment Re:Of course (Score 1) 1007

Back when those weavers got replaced there were actual shortages of wealth. Lots of people had to die because there wasn't enough food to support the birth rate.

That's not really true. This coincided with the agricultural revolution, which dramatically increased the food supply. There were all sorts of distribution problems, but there was more food than was needed. Things like the Irish Potato Famine were a bit later, but had causes that didn't relate to available food production ability.

Comment Re:Well well (Score 4, Informative) 37

We'll always accept them. We have a couple of machines specifically set up for this kind of thing, one with a USB analyser to look for low-level attacks and a RPi to look for software attacks. It's always interesting to see what you get on a free USB stick (police agency or otherwise).

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