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Comment Re:Who is being trolled? (Score 2) 100

Nissan is pretty much neck and neck with Tesla for units sold per year of pure electric vehicles

While operating in a vastly larger market segment. The fact that Tesla sells about as many cars per year but theirs are three times the price is not a fact that's to Nissan's favour.

have some room to amortize common development costs with the gas models

Conversion EVs - even factory conversion - are terrible. EVs need to be designed from the ground up as EVs. Otherwise you're just throwing away range, stability, handling, performance....

Comment Re:Distraction (Score 1) 100

. Either way it's weird for all of a sudden Tesla to be doing stack-rank style firing without claims of affordability issues, , which is generally considered a poor practice in the business world nowadays, especially odd coming from a company projecting a huge progressive image

No, it's really not. Musk isn't widely known for being nice and cuddly when it comes to rooting out whatever he thinks to be underperforming in his companies. Even fired Eberhard from Tesla Motors - the very guy who came up with the idea for the Tesla Roadster and co-founded the company. He doesn't suffer people he thinks are inefficient or losing money. And he can get away with it because there's people lined up for miles to work for his companies (just read the lower-rated comments on the AMA - half of them are begging him for a chance to work for him).

Comment Re:Distraction (Score 3, Insightful) 100

Funny, I must be hallucinating the former existence of the Falcon 1, the present existence of the Falcon 9, the landing and reuse of Falcon 9s, the success of the Tesla Roadster, the success of the Tesla Model S, the success of the Tesla Model X, and now Model 3 production beginning. Every last one of these things endlessly prophesied to be pipe dreams by a doomed, DOOOOOOMED company. And instead: success and consquering each of their respective markets.

Just like the Model 3 will soon be doing. Whether you like that or not.

Comment Re:It was alright (Score 3, Interesting) 100

I've noticed that "better metallurgy" often seems to be the go-to solution in Musk's companies - use more exotic/expensive alloys in key areas in order to save a lot of money down the road, and developing the experience working with these alloys. Part of the same thing behind Boring Company, for example - rather than simple, passively cooled steel cutting discs, they plan to use high temperature / high strength alloys and actively cool them. They'll still have to replace then, and the replacements will cost a lot more, but that's nothing compared to the amount of cost savings involved in being able to run the cutting head many times faster.

Comment Re:Distraction (Score 5, Informative) 100

That's what THEY say. There is no public evidence.

Huh? So poor performance firings should require a detailed public airing of the company's grievances against the employees? And what the heck kind of crappy "layoff" would involve under 2% of the company's employee base?

MUCH further behind than that.

False. Here's Tesla's official announced production plan. They're one month off. July was supposed to be around a hundred, August was supposed to be a few hundred, and September 1500. A few hundred were delivered in September. That's one month off.

It's also worth noting that when Model 3 was announced, their initial goal was to start production in late 2017, with no specific numbers for deliveries. They moved the start up by half a year.

And I see you have a history of making excuses for Musk's ...let's say... puffery

Funny, given that people like you keep calling his claims impossible BS, and he keeps delivering the supposed "impossible BS". Do you ever tire of being wrong, or are you always refreshed by the latest opportunity to be even more spectacularly wrong?

Comment Re:Distraction (Score 2) 100

Don't you think the timing is a bit off?

I'm confused. Do you think the company should have fired poor-performing employees earlier, or not at all?

Already we're getting the "production bottleneck" excuse from Elon for the Model 3.

Yes, they're a month behind. Raise your hand if you're actually shocked by this. Anyone? Beuller?

Here's my wrong prediction: Elon, when - not if - misses his production targets will include this among his excuses.


Now, what I'm looking forward to is his excuse, when the time comes, why he can't sell the cars he makes.

You should write for TTAC. ;)

Comment Re:Who is being trolled? (Score 3, Insightful) 100

At what point do we ask why this guy is given billions of dollars in state and federal subsidies (which is promptly burned)?

If you're referring to the auto industry loans, Tesla paid them back, with interest, years ahead of time. Unlike part of the Big Three loans. If you're referring to EV subsidies, they're available to any manufacturer, and more to the point were specifically designed to be based on the size of the Chevy Volt's battery pack. It's amusing to see the Big Three struggling against an environment that they crafted.

His latest car factory is actually human powered

It depends on what you mean. If you mean, "There are humans involved in stages of the manufacturing process", yes - but more to the point, you're describing every car factory on Earth. If you mean there's no robotic manufacturing, that's wrong. If you mean "the factory is not fully set up / tuned and requires more manual labour than it will in the end", no-freaking-duh, that's the very reason for announced S curve production plan. Most manufacturers, for a new line, will set it up and work on it for about half a year before starting sale of their production. This is not the approach Tesla is taking. While the plant is most definitely being set up for massive volumes, they are at present one month behind their planned production level at this point in time, and even that planned level was only two cars per hour.

and products are overpriced

Nearly half a million people have disagree with you, and put their money behind their disagreement.

Competition is coming,

Hahahahaha ;)

Sorry, it's just we've heard this constantly for the past decade. And there are no signs that anyone else is taking this seriously, despite their best PR efforts to come across that way. Nobody else is working on similar battery production volumes for any given production year. Nobody else is pouring nearly as much money into production and R&D (100% of Tesla's EV-related spending - excepting that directly dedicated to vehicle production, which earns 25% margins - goes into this. Billions per quarter at present). The competitors are literally missing a "0" at the end of their investment figures from what they need to be investing. Nobody else is even remotely close on fast charging networks, the key differentiating factor that actually lets you do long trips in your vehicle. The closest announcement - VW's network (forced on them by CARB) - will not even get close to what Tesla has today when it's done, let alone the scale of Tesla's network by that point in time.

It's funny watching all of the people who see concept cars announced, compare them to Tesla's offerings today, and saying "See, Tesla is about to face serious competition!" Because, again, we've seen this for a decade, but more importantly, it expresses a profound ignorance about how concept cars work. What you see presented as a concept car does not make it to production like that. Regardless of what the company says. They're not designed to be affordable to build, to meet crash standards, to be remotely efficient, and on and on. Most never go to production at all. When they do, they look radically worse (here was the concept Volt, for example), perform worse, and are priced worse. And they only try to sell them where there's pressure on them to sell EVs. Take the Bolt, for example. Go to a Chevy dealership in a ZEV state and there will be Bolts on the lot, and they'll actually push them. Go to one in a non-ZEV state, and the situation is reversed. Go to most of Europe? The Ampera-e (European Bolt) is mostly either not available at all, or you're not even allowed to buy it, only to lease. Yet GM has been idling the line, saying that there's "not enough demand".

That's known as a "halo EV" or "compliance EV". They want to be seen as making something competitive, without having to make the sort of investments needed to make and sell them in high volumes in a profitable manner. And they want to get their ZEV credits.

second mover advantage

Hahahaha ;)

we're building rockets to nowhere

Tesla has announced a rocket car? Ooh, I want!

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