Scenario: the wrong geek gets 2 strikes, gets mad, and fires up a botnet (or just happens to have, say, $20,000 laying around to rent an existing one for a few runs). The botnet causes a significant percentage of users in some country to start getting their "strike warnings". As a result, the fallacy of the idea that IP addresses identify human beings is exposed (or the fallacy that ISPs invest the slightest effort in controlling botnets, if you like).

Your anecdotal data point is representative of how risk is being moved from organizations to individuals, and income volatility is increasing even for highly educated workers (in the U.S., of course). See "High Wire" by Gosselin for detailed statistics. When Suze Orman switched to telling people they need 1 year of income in cash for emergencies, the shift in risk, the increase in income volatility, is the "why".