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Comment Re:There will be no increase in total deaths (Score 3, Insightful) 445

The death rate (deaths per day) will increase if you open early. But if you do it right there will be no difference in total deaths by the time this is all over with.

As you flatten the curve, the area under the curve remains the same. That is, flattening the curve lowers its height (number of people infected at any given time), but extends it in time (the virus outbreak lasts longer). The area under the curve (total number of people who catch the virus) remains the same.

So if you compare the death projection through August 4 if we don't reopoen, to August 4 if we do reopen, of course the latter will have more accumulated deaths by August 4. But if you compare the projected deaths up until when the virus drops off the radar, then the cumulative number of deaths for both scenarios will be the same. As long as you don't let the peak rise high enough to overwhelm your hospital capacity, the number of deaths by the time this is all over will not change. That's the only part you need to get right when flattening the curve - don't let your hospitals get overwhelmed.

This ignores the possibility of a treatment that significantly reduces the mortality rate. If it's discovered that some previously untested drug *cough* nicotine *cough* keeps most people alive, it's best if we've kept the curve flat until that discovery. A vaccine isn't the only possible medical solution to this pandemic.

Comment Re:Probably how life started here, too (Score 1) 26

I know it is speculative, but, to my mind, the question is going to be whether anything more interesting than a slime or flat worm is to be found on other planets. I am thinking simple life is common.

If we find a flatworm, we've found complex life (and probably a whole ecosystem of it). Simple (as in unicellular and slimes) life seems likely - it appeared on Earth almost as soon as we had oceans. Multicellular life took an extra 2.5 billion years to pop up.

Comment Re: Einstein (Score 0) 152

You pathetic low iq racist loser.

Isn't using "low iq" as a pejorative a bit racist too? In the sense that races (or whatever word you prefer) vary dramatically in average IQ (e.g. Einstein's people very high), so calling low iq bad implies they are inferior.

That's the best racist eupemism I've seen in years!

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