To say that you're not using real sources would be an understatement. The middle one is someone's entertaining list of things that they think will go extinct, offered more as comedy than anything else. The first is a 7-year-old interview with someone in Quatar, which just got Ham Radio around then, who offers no sources to substantiate his statement. And you seem to be assuming that the retirees cited by ARRL will all die and not be replaced, and the emergency groups will find something else to do, which makes no sense. But you are also relying on ARRL which has not presented any substantive survey on this issue.
QRZ, unlike ARRL, operates an online callbook, and thus can actually count the number of hams in many nations. Their survey is here. You need something with at least that much data to be taken seriously.