Gun Control and Rates of Firearms Violence in Canada and the United States
This article was published in 1990 by Robert Mundt of the University of North Carolina. The study looks at Canadian and U.S. rates of violent crime, suicide, and accidental death over time (1974-86) to attempt to determine if Canadian gun restrictions enacted in 1977 affected these rates in Canada when compared to the U.S. In brief, Mundt concludes that the restrictions had little perceptible effect in decreasing the rates in Canada in comparison. Mundt concluded that the only category in which a noteworthy decrease occurred over time or in comparison with parallel trends in the U.S. was in the use of firearms in robberies. He critiques numerous other studies that have attempted to examine the effect of the Canadian restrictions, including Sproule's and Kennett's earlier study, but not their study summarized above.
Mundt found that Canadian homicide rates by firearms as a proportion of all homicides dropped rapidly between 1974 and 1976, stabilized through 1978 and declined gradually to 1981. After increasing in 1982, the rate stabilized thorough 1987 at about 31% (i.e., 31% of all homicides are with firearms). While the U.S. statistics also show a decrease in the proportion of all homicides occurring with firearms during this period, the U.S. proportion is twice the Canadian proportion.
The proportion of robberies involving firearms in Canada dropped from 38% in 1977 to 34% in 1981 to 25% in 1988. The proportion of U.S. robberies involving firearms decreased from 45% in 1974 to 33% in 1988, but the rate of decrease was less than in Canada so that the gap in proportionality between the two countries is now 8% instead of 3%. Mundt would not speculate whether the difference is due to Canadian gun control or part of the same general decrease that went on in the U.S.
The overall Canadian suicide rate has consistently been slightly higher than the U.S. rate, but suicide rate by firearm is significantly higher in the U.S. each year. (The suicide rate by firearm in 1986 was about 4 per 100,000 population in Canada and almost 7.5 per 100,000 in the U.S., but overall suicide rates were close at around 13 per 100,000. Mundt saw no particular effect in suicide rates that he would attribute to the Canadian gun restrictions of 1977.
Mundt states that the accidental death rates from firearms have been declining in both the U.S. and Canada from 1974 through 1986, but that the U.S. rate is consistently two to three times greater than Canada's rate. He concludes that there is no statistical evidence of an independent effect of Canadian gun restrictions, but that the constant gap between the rates in the two countries is more easily related to the general availability of guns in the respective populations than it is for violent crimes and suicides.
Mundt concludes, based on what he acknowledges are general approximations, that the number of firearms in Canada may have actually risen following implementation of the gun control measures from a rate of 44,500 weapons per 100,000 population in 1976 to 46,000 per 100,000 in 1988. He estimates handgun ownership to have increased from 2970 per 100,000 in 1976 to 3560 per 100,000 in 1988. While citing the significant problems with data in both countries on firearms totals, he concludes that while the Canadian firearms stock has grown, the growth is less rapid than in the U.S. during this same period. Specifically, he estimates that the number of all firearms grew by 26% in the U.S. during this period compared to 4% in Canada. Growth rates for handguns only were 35% in the U.S compared to 12% in Canada. While rate increases in gun owners are probably more important than in the number of guns themselves, Mundt states that there are no data beyond occasional surveys for estimating gun owners.
Since he concludes that gun availability has probably increased in Canada over the period encompassing implementation of handgun controls, Mundt states that the significant effect of the control measures may have been to slow the rise in firearms violence that otherwise would have occurred in Canada. On the other hand, he states that the inhibiting effect of the U.S.-Canadian border has had an evident effect on keeping violence rates relatively low in Canada over time compared to the U.S.