Comment Three Horse Race (Score 1) 269
Android rules phones. Apple rules tablets. And Microsoft rules desktops. Quibble about the exact numbers or satisfaction of users, but that's the basic reality today.
All three are making plays to get more dominant in someone else's kingdom. But the two desktop contenders: Apple and Microsoft may be trying to go for a unified platform too early. Do users really want to select cell G7 in Excel on their phone under Windows 8? And certainly Apple users haven't been completely happy with trends coming the other way with the iOS-ification of Lion. This may be a huge mistake to aim for unity between desktop and mobile so early. A unified platform that's compromised stinks on all platforms.
There are advantages for a unified OS to the OS vendor and programmers, but for the user it still isn't clear. That conservative stance will actually help Android in the short term; the attempts to advance are hurting rather than helping MS and Apple right now. On the other hand, if Microsoft or Apple finds that advantage / leverage it could be very bad news for Android that's "only" a mobile platform. Android will be be quickly leveraged to the back of the pack. Short term: this is a liability to aim for unity so early, but it does make me a little nervous when considering the longer term these OS battles are fought that Android is relying on no such advantage being found.
Still nothing will be "decided" with the release of the IPhone 5, windows 8, or the next Ice Cream Tablet. This is a three horse race for three kingdoms over the long haul and all I can say is that this next year will be a very interesting seventh lap rather than the finish line for anyone.