Comment You can blame Global Climate Change for this... (Score 0, Troll) 409
Russia shoud realize by now that there is no credible threat of a U.S. nuclear first strike attack:
- There is no advantage gained by crippling Russia economically or socially. A failed Russia causes us more problems than a successful one. See references on the 'end of the Cold War' to see what a successful Russia lead to. No problem for us there. We can do it again.
- Russia's military is sufficiently constrained by economics that it is not the critical, immediate threat it once was. We should be encouraging Russian stability and economic success.
- A nuclear attack of any consequence on Russia would cause multiple environmental disasters of both more immediate and more intense concern than glbal climate change. Rendering much of Eastern Europe, the Caucuses, and potentially China and the Indian sub-continent either uninhabitable or medically dangerous would not serve any purpose. Nuclear attacks on even a regional scale must be considered 'doomsday' responses by all major nuclear powers. In light of this reality, the real threats are North Korea and potentially Iran, since they do not have the resources to make large-scale nuclear attacks, and so could calculate a scenario where an attack could be survivable for them. Mutually Assured Destruction is very near, it not already at, the end of its usefulness.
- Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, their capacity is not only constrained, but their sphere of influence is reduced. Less reason than ever to try to suppress Russian efforts at influence around the world.
But Global Climate Change has taken us down a road of questionable science, apathy by the masses, and governmental distraction from real, solvable problems. Reducing nuclear weapon stockpiles dramatically would solve a lot of problems between the U.S. and Russia, and including the major nuclear powers as the process moves forward would eventually bring us close enough to nuclear disarmament that we could engage the lesser powers and make a credible demand for their disarmament also. Then we can legitimately challenge ALL weapons-grade processing and put a stop to this dance we are in with North Korea and Iran. Sadly, we can't get there in time to address Iran's nuclear ambitions.
A significant nuclear weapons release will do more harm to our climate and planet than the worst the Global Climate Change crowd can imagine. It would render Climate Change unimportant. No one would care about failed crops from land poisoned by fallout. No one would care about UV exposure and sea level rise if they are battling cancer and indirect, long range radiation poisoning. No one would care about lost habitat and lost biodiversity in the midst of massive and fatal mutations. The jig would be up. I would be entirely aghast if both our incoming Presidents and Russian Presidents did not each get through briefings on the impact of even small releases, at least from the civilian agencies interested in this (State, FEMA, DOE, EPA, DOAgriculture, and maybe a few others) and russian counterparts. The military, despite our instincts, generally would prefer to offer an honest view of strategic ware outcomes. They also would have good reason to caution incoming Presidents against nuclear war. I would not be surprised if our secret strategy would be to back down from any threat. How we would handle an 'unexpected' massive first strike, I dunno. Again, if the schoolyard bully knows there's a bigger bully down the street that has a little brother in his school, does he go in and beat up the bigger bully's little brother? Only when he loses restraint, or the bigger bully loses credibility.
So far, we have not lost credibility on either side.
There are fewer reasons than ever to have a nuclear war.