Comment Microsoft Office is Microsoft Office's worst enemy (Score 1) 817
What I think Microsoft will continue to dominate at is Office apps. MS Office has always beat Google Docs for usability and with the introduction of web-based MS Office products I think Microsoft is already preparing to capitalize on its strengths.
The EOL for Microsoft Office 2007 is 2015 I believe. What killer features is Microsoft going to offer in that time frame? Why upgrade at all? Products like KnowledgeTree already provide the needed document management features around existing documents and even if Microsoft moves further in that direction (Sharepoint) the space is already well catered for. Microsoft Office has some insane utilization figures in the Fortune 500 companies - it's effectively 100%.
We're at the point where we don't need to upgrade our hardware every two years to remain current. Companies are moving to 3/4/5 year replacement cycles on hardware and may even push beyond that. Each year extra on existing hardware reduces the MS Windows income. Some companies have started to investigate OpenOffice.org/Symphony/Google Docs instead and ANY that move in that direction are depriving MS of future revenue.
Besides Office, (and windows which as mentioned I think has a limited lifespan left), they also are prime supplies of development tools (Visual Studio) and SQL Server. In the future I see ports of SQL Server to non-Windows platforms, as well as more shifts in Visual Studio towards developing web-based applications.
Porting SQL Server to a non-Windows platform would be interesting because that would almost certainly involve a Linux port. What are the alternatives? Mac OS X server farms are few and far between. The principle database platforms these days are Linux, AIX, Solaris, z/OS and p-series. Oracle and IBM both have heavy and extensive presence on these platforms. It's tough to see how SQL Server could displace enough entrenched customers to make the port plus support actually make a profit.
Visual Studio is an interesting issue but again, that would be entering a crowded marketplace. Also the number of developers is considerably less than the number of people who need an office suite, so even if the profit margins are high, it's not going to be a massive cash cow.
Now, I don't think that Microsoft is going to shut its doors in the next ten years. However, I doubt the company will be wielding anything like the influence it does today.
Cheers,
Toby Haynes