China Smartphone Market Slumps To 10-Year Low (techcrunch.com) 31
After a decade of frantic growth, China's smartphone market is hitting a speed bump as COVID-19 roils the world's second-largest economy. From a report: The country's smartphone shipments dropped 14% year-over-year in 2022, reaching a ten-year low, according to research firm Counterpoint. It was also the first time that China's handset sales had slid below 300 million units in ten years, according to Canalys. Even in December, which has historically seen seasonal jumps in sales, China recorded a 5% quarter-to-quarter decline in smartphone shipments. The three-year-long stringent "zero-COVID" policy that disrupted businesses and dampened consumer confidence, coupled with global macroeconomic headwinds, spelled an end to China's years of double-digit growth. Troubles mounted when the abrupt relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in early December resulted in a surge in cases, further adding pressure to the waning economy. Last year, China's GDP grew 3%, its lowest in decades other than 2020.
Hiccup or new normal? (Score:2)
> Last year, China's GDP grew 3%, its lowest in decades other than 2020.
High growth may not be sustainable indefinitely anyhow. It's possible China is hitting an economic asymptote. Mature economies usually plateau. And large dictatorships rarely get beyond about 70% of the family income of the top democracies.
Re: Hiccup or new normal? (Score:2)
Where did you come up with that number 70%? And whatâ(TM)s the cutoff in terms of population for whatâ(TM)s counts as a large democracy.
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I'm assuming you round-tripped it through google translate, and so you didn't notice that he said "top" and you ended up with "large."
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If I'm wrong, you can have my shoes.
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I didn't say you were wrong, since you didn't define what "top democracies" are, and even what counts as "dictatorships" vs. democracy is open for debate (for example, Russia is believed to be a dictatorship but is technically a democracy). The entire statement is weaselly, and malleable enough to fit whatever statistic you want.
Are those Adidas?
Re:Hiccup or new normal? (Score:4, Insightful)
Of course population is one form of growth that certainly must plateau at some point, but that doesn't make it easy.
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Expanding a bit on what you've put here in quite a pithy manner:
1. prices across all markets have gone up due to inflationary pressures, and shithead companies blaming inflation for their own margin-supporting price increases to protect and enhance profitability
2. everyone that wants a smartphone, has one, unless their parents tell them 'no'
3. everyone's discretionary spend is getting tighter due to prices increasing on everything
4. everyone wanting to charge $1200 for a fucking phone creates headwinds in t
Re: Hey CEOS!!!! (Score:1)
That's how it is with me. I live in China and I bought a Huawei Mate 30 Pro 5G/512GB back in late 2019. It's still going strong, hasn't hit any limits, battery still lasts longer than I need it to, etc etc. Basically, it still feels fresh and new.
I suspect other people have found similarly, for whatever reasons. I can't see any reason to upgrade until I break it or 6G comes along.
Maybe if there was a Chinese phone with front-facing speakers, I might be tempted, but they're rare...not that I've looked very h
Lockdowns in 2020 were correct (Score:2)
The first, and top, reason that I support the 2020 lockdowns was that it showed how easily fooled and bamboozled that idiot Trump is. God knows the inconvenience and hassle of having to stay locked down, a crashed economy, and dealing with home BS 24/7 all became worth it when it convinced fools not to vote for that lunatic again. The second best reason why the 2020 lockdowns and vaccines were good was that it saved lives by buying time for the virus to mutate into more domesticated strains that were less h
Trump derangement syndrome is real! (Score:2)
Trump had no influence in China, yet he caused their problems? Or is it that he caused problems in the US that affected sales of smart phones in China? Someone has some issues with reality.
China has operated independently of the US, and therefore Trump, for a long time. China had lockdowns, more extensive than the US, and yet they still had COVID at high rates.
Locking people up probably affected which phones sold in China. If you can't show off your new phone, why buy it to replace a working phone?
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You can't go out to buy a phone during a lockdown, and you don't really need a mobile phone if you can't leave your home anyway.
A lot of people dialed down or cancelled their mobile plans during the lockdowns, since they had no use for them when at home.
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and you don't really need a mobile phone if you can't leave your home anyway.
I would say the contrary, during lockdown people need mobile phone the most, to do video communication with their families while they can't visit them. Not everyone has interest in a computer, and those who had a sluggish or old smartphone got bored of it. There was nothing left in their life than using smartphone all day (parents and kids), so they had to buy a good one. After the normalization, everybody who felt the need of a smartphone had one already, so market decreases for a couple of years.
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If you're going to stay at home the needs of users change significantly...
You don't need a pocket sized device with cellular connectivity for use at home, an ipad with wifi is cheaper and has a much bigger screen.
Using a smartphone sucks for many things because the screen is small, the input is awkward and you will drain the battery. None of the factors which cause these limitations exist if you're using something at home. If you want to type a lot, get something with a full size keyboard. If you want to wa
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And if you're going to be using the device all day, mobile data is much more expensive than a home based data service almost anywhere.
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You could of just bought your phone on Amazon and they ship it to you. No leaving the house needed.
Re:Lockdowns in 2020 were correct (Score:4, Informative)
You hint at something here that seems to be lost on a lot of people.
My aunt is in the ICU right now with covid, about a hair's width away from being put on a ventilator. She has gone out of her way to avoid vaccination. Literally everyone else in our family has been vaccinated except her and her husband. Literally everyone in the family has gotten covid at this point except them, post vaccination, and it was annoying but basically a really bad cold with a fever. I had it while traveling, and it was basically an inconvenience as I self-selected to quarantine for a few days in order to not spread it further.
At no point did anyone, with many of the same genetic predispositions and co-morbidities, end up anywhere near a hospital. Just pharmacies for throat lozenges, NSAIDs, and decongestants.
If she would have caught the more deadly strain from 2 years ago, she would probably be in the ground right now, or not very far from it. The vaccines do not prevent infection, but prime your immune system to fight it early and come hard in order to lessen impact - and due to this very large misunderstanding there's a whole lot of bullshit being thrown about with very little factual correlation.
been coming (Score:3)
This has been coming, especially for China. They now have zero population growth, and by now everyone that wants and/or can use a smartphone has one by now. So now nearly everyone is in maintenance mode, replacing their phone when it breaks or gets too old to upgrade.
I can see plenty of room for growth from the 1B people in Africa, many of which still don't have smartphones. That market will be the new hot place to sell for the next 50 years. If you look, China has been investing all over Africa in anticipation of its tech coming-of-age.
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Smartphone penetration is deep in Africa. An African is more likely to have a smartphone than clean water or four solid walls. There might be some growth ahead, simply as a product of population growth.
The idea that they just haven't bothered selling phones to people there yet is wrong. A phone costs $15 and gives you more "fun" than the equivalent amount of beer. Africans are not waiting for their nations to develop before buying them.
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Same article, different country... (Score:3)
It's a mature market. Nobody needs a new phone. We all literally have what we need. A slab phone about 6 inches diagonal or less is a settled form factor. Fits in your pocket, can be used with one hand, has enough resolution to read or watch anything. Nobody wants their software "updated" anymore. Updated just means, buttons have been moved around, features are missing, and you're being nagged to subscribe for a fee. No thanks. In fact even some chumps I know are complaining to me that, they keep throwing watches and phones in a drawer and buying another new one for their wife.... they are FINALLY beginning to see that Apple is not high quality, and that they don't want "upgrades" that just confuse and annoy them.
The only reason to get a new phone is because your phone company throws one at you with financing and tells you you'd be crazy to turn it down, it's actually cheaper than the one your using right now. Bad for the environment. Bad for you. But good for the phone company and Apple and Google.
Please people, install LineageOS. Blacklist everyone. The future is whitelist only.
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The only reason to get a new phone is because your phone company ...
Discontinues support for the old phone, usually because it used older frequencies.
In other news... (Score:2)
In other news, smartphone innovation has dropped to a 10 year low. Experts are looking to see if historically low product demand is in any way related to historically low feature development...
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There are new features, but most people don't actually want them. Consider: folding phones.
When a product becomes mature, "innovation" has reduced utility and might become counter-productive.
Same problems in USA (Score:3)
Didn't we just get an article saying how US mobile phone sales are down? It's almost like the technology is maturing and people just can't justify wasting money on a new phone when the old phone still does everything the average person needs it to do. Not like there are any killer apps that only run on this years model.
I was forced to upgrade because of 5g coverage cannibalizing the 4g coverage, otherwise I wouldn't of upgrade my phone last year. Now I'll keep this phone until G6, which will probably come along in another two years, even though I haven't heard of it yet. It won't stop them from trying to force the upgrade cycle.
Okay okay, 5 years for 6g but they'll still sell you a 5g handset knowing full well you'll be screwed in the not to distance future.
Cynical, no not me. Never.