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China

For China's Auto Market, Electric Isn't the Future. It's the Present. (nytimes.com) 112

More electric cars will be sold in China this year than in the rest of the world combined, as its domestic market accelerates ahead of the global competition. From a report: This year, a quarter of all new cars purchased in China will be an all-electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid. By some estimates, more than 300 Chinese companies are making E.V.s, ranging from discount offerings below $5,000 to high-end models that rival Tesla and German automakers. There are roughly four million charging units in the country, double the number from a year ago, with more coming. While other E.V. markets are still heavily dependent on subsidies and financial incentives, China has entered a new phase: Consumers are weighing the features and prices of electric vehicles against gas-powered cars without much consideration of state support. The United States is far behind. This year, the country passed a key threshold of E.V.s accounting for 5 percent of new car sales. China passed that level in 2018.

Even new U.S. incentives have raised questions about how effective they will be in addressing mitigating factors for electric cars, such as long wait lists, limited supplies and high prices. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, passed last month, included a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles with conditions on where the cars are manufactured and where batteries are sourced. Automakers complained that the credit did not apply to many current E.V. models, and that the sourcing requirements could increase the cost of building an E.V. It took China more than a decade of subsidies, long-term investments and infrastructure spending to lay the foundation for its electric vehicle market to start standing on its own. Tu Le, a managing director of the Beijing-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said competition and dynamism were now driving the Chinese market, not government subsidies. "We have reached a point in China where we're competing on price. We're competing on features. So it's not a subsidy thing," Mr. Le said. "The market is taking over."

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For China's Auto Market, Electric Isn't the Future. It's the Present.

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  • What percentage of those will be glorified golf carts? Because what I've noticed is that while China does have a bunch of credible-looking EVs, they also have a plethora of garbage ones. The question I'm asking isn't whether any companies in China can make real EVs, but how many of the vehicles being sold are essentially worse-than-compliance-cars.

    • Re:OK (Score:5, Interesting)

      by TWX ( 665546 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @02:18PM (#62921767)

      China has two advantages, to use the word very, very loosely.

      First, its domestic auto industry and private automobile ownership are young. Fewer cars per-capita, and little in the way of preexisting technology that automakers are trying to amortize every last cent out of.

      Second, fewer regulations for safety. When there aren't safety mandates, there are few reasons to include or even design for possible safety measures. The cars could crumple up and crush their occupants, but without other options the buyers might not have choice if they want a car at all.

      I suppose there is a third, in that by virtue of export to the first-world, China has a lot of experience with making batteries, so producing power cells for cars shouldn't be especially difficult.

      Now the insidious part. If China wants to, it can leverage the lack of ability to carry extra 'fuel' as a means of populace control. If there's concern for a bunch of protesters trying to come to Beijing, shut off all of the charging more than 400 miles from the city until reaching the city limits. If a city gets targeted for some kind of punitive action, likewise shut off all charging stations outside of it or even within it to bring transportation to a halt.

      • by drnb ( 2434720 )
        Charging can also be used to identify protesters
      • Re: OK (Score:4, Insightful)

        by guruevi ( 827432 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @05:34PM (#62922351)

        The other advantage is that it is not a free market. It can just mandate companies to make cars and give them away for free, which is effectively what they are doing here. Chinaâ(TM)s economy is basically a continuous stimulus system leveraging debt and political power in the world in the hopes that a natural, self-sustaining but communist market will manifest itself.

        The problem is that China in the long term is running headlong into a wall, both due to population, resources and lack of a real internal economic output. The Soviets for a while were also regarded as the industrial capital of the world.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        In China you will see a lot of foreign cars. Many of them were driven overseas on lease schemes, and when the scheme ended they were exported to China for resale. So Chinese manufacturers are competing with German and Japanese and American cars.

        Safety wise modern Chinese EVs are on a par with European and Japanese brands. Not all of them, some are built down to a price, but for example Xpeng's P7 (which is sold in Europe now too) achieved the highest rating of any EV in its class in Euro NCAP crash testing.

    • here's their most popular selling "car", only $4500. 75 mile range (okay for many people's two way commute), 62 MPH max speed (again, okay for most people), doesn't have AC in base model, that's $600 more which is okay too. The two big issues are it doesn't pass U.S. safety regs, and the second big issue is if you get into accident with even subcompact U.S. car you'll fucking die crushed into a ball of sheet metal, it's a suicide-mobile in that case.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/busin... [bbc.com]

      • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

        Do you have any source for the safety issues? Your link doesn't say anything regarding that.

        Plus, the people buying these aren't choosing between it and a Tesla. They're choosing it over an electric scooter, which last I checked, has 0 rider protection.

    • As someone with experience in buying various "nice looking" Chinese products from their online sellers, I would also be very skeptical about their high-end cars.

    • Counterpoint, I feel like the US market for EV's is aiming a little too high. Everybody thinks everybody has range anxiety. I just want to buy a nice but cheap commuter and 50 miles of range would be fine. The base model Mini Cooper EV looked enticing but they discontinued it due to "supply chain issues" so now you can only get a model with a bunch of garbage like a heated steering wheel and lane departure alerts for thousands more.
      • by madbrain ( 11432 )

        Have you driven an EV / PHEV ? I have, for the last decade.

        If you want just 50 miles of range, you can buy a used first generation Nissan Leaf for cheap.

        Just make sure to be clear about the conditions you want those 50 miles of range.

        50 miles in spring time at 65 mph with the cabin heater on and lots of elevation could require up to twice as much energy.

        The heated steering wheel / heated seats are very nice features, which can help conserve battery if you can use it in place of the much more energy intensiv

    • by rbrander ( 73222 )

      If they are glorified golf carts, they're part of the wave of the future. Particularly for an aging population, tooling around residential-only streets to stores in a glorified (i.e. weather-protected) "golf cart" may be just the solution for independence.
      https://www.theatlantic.com/te... [theatlantic.com]

      • I'm in favor of getting the big vehicles (except for ambulances and such) out of cities and only having NEVs and similar there. You can't mix them with the rest of the stuff on the road, though.

  • by ranton ( 36917 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @02:14PM (#62921757)

    A quick Google search [bloomberg.com] seems to show China still does subsidize its auto market and EV sales specifically, just in a little different way than the US. The article above show EV subsidies of around $1500-$2500 USD for new EV sales, which considering a new Chinese car averages $15k USD that is comparable to US subsidies. They don't appear to be nation wide though and are district / province specific. Also the Chinese government tends to directly invest in their companies, as opposed to just relying on subsidies like the US, so a direct comparison would be hard.

    It doesn't take away from the fact China has far higher EV sales than the US, but saying it isn't in part because of government intervention appears to be disingenuous.

    • China is the worst country on Earth for pollution in general and carbon emissions in particular. [climateactiontracker.org]

      Doing roughly 2x the US and climbing. [wikipedia.org]

      We estimate Chinaâ(TM)s emissions have risen 3.4% to 14.1 GtCO2e in 2021 due to a large spike in energy demand as the countryâ(TM)s pandemic recovery continuesâ"this is concerning as power consumption has been projected to rise 5â"6% in the upcoming year.

      In 2020â"2021, China began toning down its outlook on coal, highlighted by President Xi Jinping when he announced that China will strictly control coal consumption until 2025 and start to gradually phase it down thereafter. By the end of 2021, however, China had seemingly completely reneged on this strategy to focus on shoring up coal (and other fossil fuels) supply off the back of energy security and shortage concerns. China has also pledged to end financing for building coal plants overseas, with 2021 marking the first year since 2000 that Chinaâ(TM)s two global policy banks provided no new energy finance commitments to international governments. The pledge could result in the cancellation of 43 GW of new coal projects across Asia, including no new coal projects in countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

      In 2021, China produced its highest-ever annual output in coal production. The continued short and medium-term reliance on coal and fossils was emphasised in March 2022 in both Chinaâ(TM)s âoeTwo Sessionsâ, the annual plenary sessions of two of Chinaâ(TM)s major political bodies, and the newly published 14th FYP for the energy sector.

      EVs don't mean shit when you watch where the power comes from.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      One big reason why EVs and battery tech are so advanced in China is that they rolled out commercial vehicles early.

      Everyone thinks Musk is a genius for targeting the luxury vehicle market first, but actually commercial users made great early adopters because they were rational actors - if an electric bus could be shown to be significantly cheaper to operate over its lifetime, they would happily pay double for one up front.

      For getting on a decade now some cities have had fully electric busses and taxis. The

      • commercial users made great early adopters because they were rational actors - if an electric bus could be shown to be significantly cheaper to operate over its lifetime, they would happily pay double for one up front.
        For getting on a decade now some cities have had fully electric busses and taxis.

        Blue Bird was offering electric buses in the US in the 2000s, after "inventing" (engineering) the modern electric bus in the 1990s. They had virtually no takers, despite the fact they had lower TCO back then too.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Weren't they using NiMH cells for those? From what I understood there was patent encumbrance on lithium cells in the 90s, so a few manufacturers made NiMH based EVs like the Toyota Rav4 variant and the EV1.

          Odd they didn't sell if they were capable of running the routes. I think the main issue now is lack of domestic manufacturers, although we are starting to see electric vans and trucks.

          • I'm pretty sure they originally used FLA, maybe AGM. This was back in 1994, mind. Google doesn't even know shit about it, I narrowed the results by year, how lame they have become. Might try the IA. To the best of my knowledge Chevron never licensed out the NiMH battery "technology" (it was just a shitload of cells, there's no technology to speak of there) after they bought it from Honda. Yay patents!

            BB still got ~100mi range out of the original model. Today they are using NMC and you can get either a conve

  • ... they will only sell 3 times qualifying electric production, or because 25% or more of buyers want electric cars? Both are possible, and both qualify.

  • According to this, https://www.eia.gov/internatio... [eia.gov] 55% is from coal and 19% from oil. Having an EV is much more environmentally helpful in countries that have nuclear, hydroelectric, wind or solar sources for electricity.
    • by crow ( 16139 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @02:22PM (#62921787) Homepage Journal

      So what?

      Even with electricity from coal, EVs put out less CO2 than other vehicles. And they get better as the grid gets more renewables.

      Yes, it's not perfect, but it's better.

      • by ranton ( 36917 )

        And they get better as the grid gets more renewables.

        This is the most important take away from your comment. Increasing adoption of electric is important even when the power grid is dirty because the power grid is likely to become cleaner over time. Adoption of new technologies is slow so it is a good idea to get started even if EV's won't reduce overall pollution for decades until the power grid cleans up.

        • by short ( 66530 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @02:52PM (#62921907) Homepage
          The take away is that even with current dirty electric plants the pollution is lower. As electric plants are more effective and they have better pollution filters than what you can put into the small car engine + its tailpipe. So it is already better and it will be getting even better.
        • Not even needed. A large coal power plant is already better for the environment than thousands of small ICE engines. Bonus points for not releasing emissions 3m away from when when I walk down the street so it's healthier too.

      • It doesn't matter where the CO2 is being generated, so long as it happens. The fact that EVs (as a closed system) put out less CO2 than other vehicles does not mean that in the grand scheme of things switching to EV reduces CO2 pollution.

        Consider: conventional cars burn oil to generate electricity, EVs use electricity generated by burning coal. Assuming that you have to generate roughly the same amount of electricity, generating it using coal is going to be much worse than burning oil.

        Plus, EVs don't just s

        • by crow ( 16139 )

          No, you're completely wrong.

          Conventional cars to not burn oil to generate electricity. They burn gasoline to create mechanical motion. (Yes, a small part is converted to electricity through the alternator, but that's essentially irrelevant.) This process is far less efficient than an electric motor. Hence, even with burning coal to generate electricity, an EV puts out far less CO2 than an internal combustion engine vehicle. And even if you take into account the CO2 produced during manufacturing, that's

    • by dasunt ( 249686 )
      Is it a net plus still to switch to EVs even if you burn coal? I tried to calculate it, but it gets complicated. Electricity is nearly 100% efficient, but there's transmission losses, as well as a big loss in electrical power generation, and there's also a loss in the energy that goes into mining and transporting coal. On the flip side, gasoline is pretty inefficient at turning energy to motion, and there's also losses in oil refining and oil production.
      • by SirSlud ( 67381 )

        and uh, you have to transport gasoline too

      • by mspohr ( 589790 )

        Coal to electricity is about 25% efficient.
        ICE engines are also about 25% efficient but you lose an additional 20% in refining and transport of oil.
        So, even if you run your car on electricity solely derived from coal, its more efficient than an ICE car. (Of course, not many places have only coal generation. Most are a combination of coal, NG, wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc.)
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/m... [forbes.com]

      • by Freedom Bug ( 86180 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @03:51PM (#62922109) Homepage

        If you don't include transport costs, a 100% coal powered EV and a gasoline car have roughly the same CO2 emissions per kilometre. Which is better depends on which vehicles you choose as comparables.

        But the transport of gasoline to filling stations adds ~40% to the gasoline emissions per kilometre. Transporting coal to the generating station is done using more efficient ships and train, so the coal powered EV wins.

        • But the transport of gasoline to filling stations adds ~40% to the gasoline emissions per kilometre.

          That number seems really high, do you have a citation?

        • And the 100% coal emissions are not released in the city centre dramatically reducing PM2.5, PM10, and NOx emissions where they do the most damage.

          That said I would need a citation for your number. Small oil engines are far dirtier than coal power plants on theoretical max thermal efficiency alone, to say nothing of actual practical implementation.

    • Well China has signed up to various agreements to reduce greenhouse gasses.

      If alot of their vehicles are electric, a switch in power generation from coal to something else will suddenly make them alot cleaner then they are currently.

    • Why is it too bad? Coal plants aren't in city centres and coal plants are far more efficient than even the theoretical maximum of an otto-cycle engine, and none of the cars are that efficient either.

      You're letting perfect be the enemy of damn excellent. Or you're trolling.

    • According to this, https://www.eia.gov/internatio... [eia.gov] 55% is from coal and 19% from oil. Having an EV is much more environmentally helpful in countries that have nuclear, hydroelectric, wind or solar sources for electricity.

      Are you implying 19% of China's electricity comes from oil?
      Because that's absurd.
      19% of the total CO2 comes from oil. But it's not used to produce electricity.

      Even a coal powered electric car is less polluting than an oil powered car anyway.

      Are you also trying to imply that China doesn't have much wind solar nuclear and hydro? As that's equally absurd of you.

  • by Anonymous Coward

    The rest of the world is lagging because their governments enjoyed sitting the thumbs of Big Oil.

  • by bb_matt ( 5705262 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @02:31PM (#62921819)

    If you start looking at the numbers, total population, the amount of vehicles etc. it paints all sorts of different pictures.

    Right now, the parity in terms of the amount of vehicles in the USA vs. China, is about equal, but China has a population 4x that of the USA.

    I guess that parity is what paints the clearest picture - China has more EV's, but less vehicles per person.
    That's not a bad thing at all.

    Depends whether you want to live in China or not - I'd pick the USA any day of the week - at least there, I have the right to pull the middle finger "to the man", without fear of being arrested - at least, so far ...

    I live in the UK, which I sometimes joke feels like a country somewhere in-between China and the USA , in terms of society and personal freedom.
    In reality, it's a pretty liberal society - just us Brits can be a bit reserved sometimes.

    Here, EV's are maybe a percentage more than the US, depending what stats you care to look at - so hardly any different.
    The barrier to entry is still massive - the biggest issue being charging, the second being the price.
    Heck, you can pick up second hand gas/diesel cars here for chump change - I guess just like the USA.
    For many people, that's the only option - they can't afford to shell out $10k, $15k, $20k and upward for an EV - they can't even get the credit.
    Hell, the first car I bought here in the UK, cost me $700 - and it ran just fine for 5 years.

    The only way EV vehicles, at least in the UK, are ever going to ramp up in popularity quickly, is via government schemes - such as scrappage schemes - plus cheaper options.
    Trade in your old fossil fuel car for a 25% discount or something.

    I don't know - it's complicated, very complicated.

    I'm hanging onto my fossil fuel car for as long as I can - till it just dies on the road.
    I reckon I'll get another decade out of it.

    • Trade in your old fossil fuel car for a 25% discount or something.

      25% off the price of an EV is still way more expensive than the average gas-burner. I'd own an EV now if I could get one for as little as I paid for my last car. The way things look, however, EV's are going to be priced beyond my desires for longer than I'll last. So, gas burners it will be.

    • Re: "I'd pick the USA any day of the week - at least there, I have the right to pull the middle finger "to the man", without fear of being arrested" - Not true. If they're in the mood, they'll arrest you & beat the shit out of you for whatever, with impunity. If you're not white, they may execute you on the spot.
  • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @02:33PM (#62921831)

    China may be selling more electric cars than anyone else, but that's not saying much when the number is still pretty low.

    If the "present is electric" in China, would they still have massive pollution issues in cities like Beijing?

    It's a great step but it's way too soon to claim any one country is living an a true age of electric cars. That is yet to come... though eventually we'll reach it, one way or another. The benefits are too good all around.

    • by Cyberax ( 705495 )

      If the "present is electric" in China, would they still have massive pollution issues in cities like Beijing?

      Mostly coal power plants and coal-burning furnaces. They have cleaned it up a LOT. Scroll to "Air quality historical data" on this page: https://aqicn.org/city/beijing... [aqicn.org]

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It depends what metric you use. In Norway the majority of new vehicles sold are plug-in electric, which includes hybrids. In China car ownership is much less common, but among the middle and upper classes who can afford them a lot of people are buying electric.

    • If the "present is electric" in China, would they still have massive pollution issues in cities like Beijing?

      The present is about sale of cars, not about solving the world's problems. And yeah Beijing is quite a bit better than it used to be, as are many Chinese cities where the government has implemented limitations on the sale of ICE cars (or worse: motorbikes).

      You may not see the mountains, but at least you can now see to the end of the street which you never used to be able to.

  • by AmazingRuss ( 555076 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @03:44PM (#62922089)
    "The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, passed last month, included a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles" Result: Price of an EV goes up $7500. The stupid... it burns!
  • How many of them would pass US safety standards, maybe 10%? I don't think we should be counting 5,000$ evs.
    • China is reducing reliance on gas . They have less safe ICE cars too. The industry is headed toward EV and China has notable progress even though volumes are cheapies.
  • Yeah but those are commie EVs that run on commie electricity. You can't get that in 'Murica. It's not the 'Murican way.
  • by robi5 ( 1261542 ) on Wednesday September 28, 2022 @05:09PM (#62922303)

    Wow, such a long summary and I still have no idea about
    - what percentage of new car sales in China are electric
    - what percentage of all running cars in China are electric
    - what percentage of all running cars will be electric in 5, 10 or 15 years
    - will the absolute number of ICE cars used in China still grow anyway, on the offchance people are getting wealthier and cars are becoming more widespread?

    These would substantiate the claim that "For China's Auto Market, Electric Isn't the Future. It's the Present."
    Has someone got these numbers from the article?

    • You can look it up, someone above mentioned their most popular brand looks pretty good, besides missing airbags and being very small, they only produce 15,000 cars per month. Lots of people in China arenâ(TM)t going to get a car at that rate. Total production in China for EVs is about 3M units (basically 3 times the volume of Tesla, but that also includes Tesla and golf carts) but about 25% is export market. The country has over 1B people.

    • A long summary and you're wondering why it doesn't answer 3 irrelevant whataboutisms that aren't related to the story? (For the record your first question was answered in the first sentence)

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • No, actually, China and the US West both get a large majority of energy from hydroelectric solar wind tidal geothermal sources. Most coal is used for home heating and steel or metal fabrication, and someone (*me*) got them to shut down their old coal plants that couldn't be converted to cogeneration (basically twice the power output per tonne of coal, used to heat houses and buildings mostly).

      Most Chinese coal consumption is increasingly pushed onto client factories in other countries (like E Europe, Afric

  • Vietnam, Canada (BC other provinces), Norway all are at 20-30 percent new vehicle sales as ZEV (plug-in hybrids designed for commuting, electric trucks, hydrogen (NOT METHANE aka natural gas) vehicles, etc).

    Come on in, the water's fine. WA OR ID CA NV will all be at this level of vehicle sales in 2023.

  • A large proportion of China's ostensible progress on EVs is digging itself into an unnecessary cul-de-sac. If hybrids continue to play such a role in their auto sector, they'll find themselves ironically delayed from achieving full and cost-effective electrification.
  • Unlike say California, China has plenty of electric power to power all these vehicles. ...generated by coal-fired power plants.

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