Bitcoin Hits New Record, This Time With Less Talk of a Bubble (nytimes.com) 134
Bitcoin is back. Again. From a report: Nearly three years after it went on a hair-bending rise and hit a peak of $19,783, the price of a single Bitcoin rose above that for the first time on Monday, according to the data and news provider CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency has soared since March, after sinking below $4,000 at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic. Bitcoin's latest climb is different from its last spike in 2017, which was driven largely by investors in Asia who had just learned about cryptocurrencies. Back then, the digital token soon lost momentum as people questioned what it could do other than allow for easy online speculating and drug and ransom payments.
While those questions remain, Bitcoin is now being fueled by a less speculative fever. Buyers -- led by American investors, including companies and other traditional investors -- are treating Bitcoin as an alternative asset, somewhat like gold, according to an analysis from the data firm Chainalysis. Rather than quickly trading in and out of it, more investors are using Bitcoin as a place to park part of their investment portfolios outside the influence of governments and the traditional financial system, Chainalysis and other industry firms said. "It's a very different set of people who are buying Bitcoin recently," said Philip Gradwell, the chief economist at Chainalysis, which analyzes the movement of cryptocurrencies. "They are doing it in steadier amounts over sustained periods of time, and they are taking it off exchanges and holding it as an investment."
While those questions remain, Bitcoin is now being fueled by a less speculative fever. Buyers -- led by American investors, including companies and other traditional investors -- are treating Bitcoin as an alternative asset, somewhat like gold, according to an analysis from the data firm Chainalysis. Rather than quickly trading in and out of it, more investors are using Bitcoin as a place to park part of their investment portfolios outside the influence of governments and the traditional financial system, Chainalysis and other industry firms said. "It's a very different set of people who are buying Bitcoin recently," said Philip Gradwell, the chief economist at Chainalysis, which analyzes the movement of cryptocurrencies. "They are doing it in steadier amounts over sustained periods of time, and they are taking it off exchanges and holding it as an investment."
it's different this time (Score:5, Insightful)
as they always say before the crash
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I want to mod this +1 insightful but it hardly takes a lot of "insight" to see where this is going.
That said, I might just buy some when it goes below $5000 again. There's an infinite supply of idiots out there, might as well get in on the action.
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It's *exactly* like gold [macrotrends.net].
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yeah, just change axis from years to days, and you have a bitcoin graph
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"Somewhat" as in "not in the least"? I can agree to that.
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"Somewhat" as in "not in the least"? I can agree to that.
I guess there is a key difference. You can make teeth and other trinkets out of gold. Also gold is lots less likely to suddenly be replaced when someone come
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But the article said its somewhat like gold! :D
At least gold has industrial uses.
Even a tulip has more intrinsic value (Score:1)
But the article said its somewhat like gold! :D
At least gold has industrial uses.
Even a tulip has more intrinsic value than a bitcoin
Re:Bitcoin Gold (Score:2)
The utility of gold has been that all cultures value it, it's difficult to imitate, and the supply grows only very slowly year after year. Gold was currency in pre-technological centuries, when all economies were a zero-sum game. If your lord made more money this year, it was because he had found some new way of taking more from you.
With the Enlightenment, technology started making the whole pie grow, and a commodity with a fixed supply no longer sufficed as currency. People started using gold as a storehou
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I wish people would stop saying this.
Crypto was never conceived as a store of value. It was created as a proof-of-concept of a digital token. Fiat wasn't created as a store of value either. Just a token that the state regulates as a way to pay debts.
Any "value" crypto holds is totally arbitrary, and before you say gold or fiat is not different, it actually is. Gold has intrinsic value beyond its use as a token of value. Fiat is regulated by th
Re: Bitcoin Gold (Score:1)
Bitcoin / Gold analogy fails (Score:2)
People are unable to understand why Gold was money, and not the 100+ elements of the periodic table. Understanding a unique technology generating a real digital scarcity, a technology impossible to copy. This is beyond understanding for most people.
LOL. There is more to gold than scarcity. There is also its permanence, as an element in the periodic table, one very reluctant to react with other elements. There are also industrial applications for gold so it is not limited to it cosmetic values.
Bitcoin is just a user of block chain technology. The block chain concept may persist but Bitcoin is nothing more than the first user of blockchain to get attention. It will be replaced. For many reasons including the fact that it has failed its own secure mod
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There is also Gold's anonymity. Gold is not traceable - steal someones gold, melt it down, and form your own ingots. There is no way to mark it or test it to prove that it was every your gold.
This is a huge issue for treasure seekers (pirate treasures or gold coins recovered from shipwrecks) - there has to be something else (records, manifests, pictures, ledgers, etc.) to establish provenience for what they found, to prove it came from such and such a wreck - the gold by itself cannot do it.
Re:Bitcoin Gold (Score:2)
Wait... are you implying bitcoin is "a unique technology generating a real digital scarcity, a technology impossible to copy?"
It's not unique. It's not scarce, nor impossible to copy. It's been forked multiple times. The source code is out there and anybody who wants to make their own copy of bitcoin can do so.
Bitcoin, just a larger audience for "Greater Fool" (Score:3)
Bitcoin is hard money, for obvious reasons nobody trusts nobody. This is what makes Bitcoin unique. This is reflected in the mantra: 'Don't Trust Verify'. Altcoins follow a different path. Altcoins are get rich schemes. People follow a leader expecting to be rewarded. They don't understand they are the suckers.
Bitcoins and many alt-coins are precisely the same. They are experiments in crypto currency. Bitcoin merely was the first to get some attention among the general public. In other words more people to work the "Greater Fool" strategy upon.
Bitcoin will be replaced. It is now insecure as mining is no longer distributed. 70% of mining hashpower is in one country and dependent upon cheap government supplied electricity. That violates Bitcoin's own security model. It functions at the pleasure of that governmen
Re:Bitcoin > Gold (Score:1)
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But the article said its somewhat like gold! :D
In the same way that rhinestones are somewhat like diamonds.
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You mean, in the same way a digitally-signed picture of rhinestones are like diamonds.
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Re:it's different this time (Score:4, Funny)
Ponzi schemers will Ponzi... (Score:3)
...only this time EVERYONE pays through all the global warming needlessly added to the system. [digiconomist.net]
It's basically as if butcoiners have all gone steampunk, shoveling coal onto a giant fire, which runs their lottery ticket machines.
Build a damn because of tech experiment ... (Score:2)
Bitcoin makes the conduction of new hydraulic capacity profitable
Proposal: Build a hydroelectric dam and the power distribution infrastructure.
Justification: There is a techy experiment called cryptocurrency.
Revenue Source: Taxpayers.
Sorry, no. Want a damn? Sell some Bitcoins and pay for it. You can deduct it under "Plant, Property and Equipment" for your mining operations. And there will be more expenses to deduct under "Legal Expenses" as you deal with the various environmental lawsuits.
Come on, what's the hold up? You just said it would be profitable.
It may be different due to demographics (Score:2)
it's different this time, as they always say before the crash
Well, actually, the bubble behavior may be different. The previous four (?) 75% percent crashes after huge runups were pretty much based an techy speculators. Now that Wall Street and Main Street speculators have joined in the crash behaviors may very well be a bit different. Different population, different behaviors.
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I noticed that msmash has been pumping Bitcoin extra hard in his Slashdot submissions lately. I guess that he's planning on dumping around $20,000.
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I'll say it. (Score:2)
It's a bubble, pass it on.
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The fact that a "currency" can go from being valued at $4000 to $20,000 in the span of a few months should tell you all you need to know about whether this is a bubble. That sort of instability goes both ways, and while it may be going up right now, history has shown time and again that it can and almost certainly will go down even faster.
Maybe it will rise again after that, but maybe not. So far as I'm aware (and my info may be out of date since I don't keep up) Bitcoin still hasn't done anything to addres
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https://www.musicbusinessworld... [musicbusin...ldwide.com]
Second article hyping bitcoin today (Score:2)
So, this is the second article hyping bitcoin today. I would suspect there's an attempt to drive its price up for some people to cash out, but this is a reputable nerd site, it must simply be news for nerds.
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Nah, it's just clickbait.
Re:Second article hyping bitcoin today (Score:5, Insightful)
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You are right on one point: 'Crypto' is nonsensical, this is the same as using a single word for Gold and Pyrite .
Bitcoin is the digitization of the Gold Standard.
Cryptos, outside Bitcoin, are the digitization of the Pyrite. Pyrite, like all materials, is useful, but utterly useless as money.
A sh*tcoin is anything promoted as a form of money whose supply is easy to increase. In other words, anything other than gold or bitcoin.
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Which is why they shouldn't be used as investments, but rather a medium of exchange for goods and services.
For cryptocurrency to work that way, it would have to be issued by a central bank that is trusted to establish a specified ratio of coin to fungible goods, and then maintain that ratio by continually changing the money supply to match. We would then be right back where we started.
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Again crypto is nonsensical. The decentralization is a unique event: Bitcoin. Everything else follow the same model as M$ Windows, a software with forced updated by the people who control the software.
Bitcoin is not a PayPal clone. Bitcoin is money; Bitcoin is a competitor of Gold and the Fed.
We should consider the basic economic realities: The Gresham's law. If you designed the best money (Bitcoin), nobody will spend it first. If your money is not the best, your money will behave as a FIAT currency. As Vo
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Bitcoin is money; Bitcoin is a competitor of Gold and the Fed.
Gold is not money. Bitcoin is not money. They may have value, but that doesn't make them money. The agreement to accept it for payment makes it money. Disney dollars are closer to money than bitcoin.
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China failed to attack Bitcoin. The USA succeeded against Gold; This was the executive order 6102.
No, it didn't work. Gold ownership in the US just went underground for a few years until Republicans came back into power and repealed 6102. Through this whole time, gold maintained its position as a storehouse of value.
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It's only 10/11 years old, give it time.
They do have a floor (Score:2)
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Floor is near zero. Near zero switching cost. (Score:2)
The number of bitcoin transactions worldwide completely dwarfs the number of bitcoin transactions used to buy marijuana in the US.
The vast majority of those transactions are speculative buying and selling, just folks leveraging the high volatility.
The floor is near zero. Users can transition to another cryptocurrency with near zero costs. This is even true for the small number using Bitcoin for commerce. Few vendors hold, or even ever see a Bitcoin. They pay cryptocurrency payment processors to handle the coins and pay them in the fiat they had specified. If payment processors support a bitcoin replacement vendors don't care. All t
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Let me ask you this. Are you buying other "real" currencies to make a profit? Same with bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is not a currency. A currency is something generally accepted for a transaction.
Well unless you want to spend all your time buying drugs and kiddy porn, for that Bitcoin is a currency.
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msmash bought at the last peak and wants to cash out with a profit.
Hello Mr. Pump (Score:4, Funny)
Let me introduce you to Mr. Dump.
Re:Hello Mr. Pump (Score:4, Insightful)
Meanwhile, whoever submitted our approved this article is looking for Mr. Chump.
Re: Hello Mr. Pump (Score:2)
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1) Pump
2) Chump
3) Dump
4) Profit!
We've finally eliminated the "????"
Sold for $1k (Score:2)
I bought for $11 (and mined some in a pool) and sold it all for $1k/btc. Obviously if I had a time machine or crystal ball I would have rather sold for $20k, and bought (or mined) a lot more than I did. Sadly I don't have an infinite amount of time and money to invest in all the "sure things" people show me.
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Yours is the reason I'm not kicking myself for not buying in at $1. I would have sold it at $100 (if I hadn't lost them).
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> I bought for $11 (and mined some in a pool) and sold it all for $1k/btc.
Bitcoin is for people who dislike the limitations and downsides of national fiat currencies like the dollar. If that doesnt describe you, then why did you buy in? Do you like gambling?
The kind of people who should be messing around with bitcoin arent the types who would ever sell if for US dollars.
I never understood people who would invest in something without understanding the very first thing about it.
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If that doesnt describe you, then why did you buy in? Do you like gambling?
I used it to buy things online. I bought some used music gear and some DIY electronics kit from an independent maker. For person-to-person transactions it seemed pretty good. But I also had a fair amount in my wallet that I sat on for a long time, decided to trade it in for cash when it was clear that I wasn't likely to spend the rest of what I had.
The kind of people who should be messing around with bitcoin arent the types who would ever sell if for US dollars.
You paint a broad brush. Is this meant rhetorically or are you serious? Care to elaborate?
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Mining difficulty (Score:2, Insightful)
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Isn't it *extremely* difficult to even mine a single bitcoin now? I thought it was concluded a year ago that the cost of electricity and hardware almost made bitcoin mining impractical. Is this still the case?
How typical of the Bitcoin boosters to mod down a perfectly valid post.
Re:Mining difficulty (Score:5, Insightful)
Isn't it *extremely* difficult to even mine a single bitcoin now?
Is this still the case?
Yes, and it shall forever be. Bitcoin is an ecological nightmare.
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Isn't it *extremely* difficult to even mine a single bitcoin now?
Is this still the case?
Yes, and it shall forever be. Bitcoin is an ecological nightmare.
Given that we can't just take Bitcoin away from people, how do we solve this?
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Isn't it *extremely* difficult to even mine a single bitcoin now? I thought it was concluded a year ago that the cost of electricity and hardware almost made bitcoin mining impractical. Is this still the case?
That and this from summary:
....more investors are using Bitcoin as a place to park part of their investment portfolios outside the influence of governments and the traditional financial system, Chainalysis and other industry firms said. "It's a very different set of people who are buying Bitcoin recently," said Philip Gradwell, the chief economist at Chainalysis, which analyzes the movement of cryptocurrencies. "They are doing it in steadier amounts over sustained periods of time, and they are taking it off exchanges and holding it as an investment."
If his analysis is correct, that means investors are losing faith in traditional financial institutions - or at the very least - hedging against catastrophic failure or collapse. I once read an analysis of the effects of the Plague on the European peasant system and how to transferred power from the land owners to the peasants.
Wars and mass disease causes mass changes in society and economies.
No one can predict the future but one can (maybe) prepare for Black Swan events if one
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If that's what they are doing, it's hilarious. The idea that a society in which - say - the US dollar has totally collapsed would be the slightest bit interested in bitcoin is nonsensical. In that scenario, medical supplies and bullets would be a better bet.
If people are switching to bitcoin it's not because they have no faith in traditional financial systems, it's because they want to be immune to government regulation - including, but not limited to, taxes.
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Dumping my APPL stock to buy Dogecoin!
Re:Mining difficulty (Score:4, Interesting)
If people are switching to bitcoin it's not because they have no faith in traditional financial systems, it's because they want to be immune to government regulation - including, but not limited to, taxes.
That may be true but probably not in the way that most people on slashdot think of it. If I am a member of the Russian or Chinese economic elite, there is a huge incentive to squirrel away a small portion of my wealth such that my beloved family can flee overseas. For this purpose, I may be willing to pay a very very large risk premium for portability and opaqueness.
Invest in frothy real estate? I may well lose 30% of my money, but I still keep some of my money. Unfortunately, my home gov't may well be able to track this stuff down through public records.
Invest in frothy cryptocurrency? I may well lose 75% of my money, but this is very portable and hard to track, when my son goes on the lam.
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By design, bitcoin gets harder and harder to mine, in the sense that each new bitcoin takes more processing power than the previous ones. Since processing speed per watt of power consumed hasn't risen as quickly, each bitcoin requires more and more electricity, making it more and more expensive. If you are designing a currency that you want to have ever-increasing value, this is a pretty good formula -- prices will continue to rise predictably, as long as you can sustain sufficient interest to keep making m
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Since processing speed per watt of power consumed hasn't risen as quickly, each bitcoin requires more and more electricity, making it more and more expensive
It's self-regulating, at least according to the interest. As more people mine, bitcoin gets more expensive to mine, but if people stopped mining, there would be less computation needed to mine.
Maybe a cryptocurrency could be issued based on proof-of-work doing something useful: offer units of computation into a pool for public use, and receive some cryptocurrency for each TFLOP completed.
I think there are/were attempts to do that, but it makes the currency centralized on whatever "pool" it is based on. I don't think there's a way to do it and keep the decentralization. Brute-forcing hashes (what bitcoin uses) is probably one of the few things we can e sure cannot be cheated (well, unless you manage to
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"By design, bitcoin gets harder and harder to mine, in the sense that each new bitcoin takes more processing power than the previous ones."
Simply false. In fact the intrinsic block reward for mining **DROPS** on a regular basis ('Halvenings').
The difficulty only adjusts to keep the hash rate at an average of 1 block per 10 minutes.
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Yes, that's what Ethereum 2.0 is all about. Proof of Stake (PoS) instead of Proof of Work (PoW). Basically you "stake" money in escrow in order to be able to process transactions and get rewards. But if you mess with the network your escrowed money gets penalized. ETH2 is based more on game theory than energy-intensive mining.
Bitcoin fails its own security design. (Score:2)
Isn't it *extremely* difficult to even mine a single bitcoin now? I thought it was concluded a year ago that the cost of electricity and hardware almost made bitcoin mining impractical. Is this still the case?
In the sense of the distributed sort of mining that the security model assumes yes. However if you happen to be next to cheap hydro that will permit commercial mining operations it can be profitable. Which is how we get to today's situation where 70% of miners are located in a single country, dependent upon that government's cheap electricity.
Now bitcoin evangelists may counter that this government would never force its local miners into performing a 51% attack to reverse or divert some transfer it dispr
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This question makes me wonder what the price elasticity of supply [wikipedia.org] for BTC is. I'm thinking it's definitely way less than one, and probably closer to zero than one but not there yet. The system is designed to eventually reach a fixed supply, so elasticity should tend to zero.
The difficulty of creating new ones is what helps it go up so fast--but it's no guarantee of ever increasing prices, as people often forget that price is the intersection of supply and demand curves.
The short-run elasticity is certainl
Bitcoin: for the other 1% (Score:3)
Bitcoin: for the other 1%, this time that 1% is all the geeks.
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Nah, people who have no idea what Bitcoin actual *is* are trading; in fact there are apps out there which let anyone get into cryptocurrency arbitrage -- their selling point is simplicity. You don't need to understand anything to use them. The advertising leans heavily on FOMO.
If you go by Bitcoin holdings, about half are owned by entities that have a thousand or more BTC -- or about $20 million. But there are a lot of small fry investing small amounts that are, to them, significant.
... and more reality of a bubble. (Score:1)
"It's totally not a heist, this time!", the wolf said. "I'm just telling you how great your fence is, so you can sleep well."
Still nothing but a bubble (Score:1)
The thing is just that those with a clue have gotten tired of pointing out time and again how utterly stupid the "inverstors" are.
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"Always a bigger fool" also means that when everyone else has bought into the system, the *greatest* fools are those who denied the new reality to the end.
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Nope. The greatest fools are those that buy in late. And lose everything. There is no "new reality", just a very old scam in a new variant.
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Well, enjoy staying poor, you had the opportunity.
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I am not poor. Maybe because I do not put my money in unwise investments...
Doubled my Money! (Score:1)
Really? (Score:2)
I never heard any Bitcoin talk about a bubble, actually no coin whatsoever.
Written by a shill (Score:2)
Bitcoin is not "back", its price pumping is on small volume, and of course there is just as much talk as ever by those with actual functioning neurons that this is yet another bubble for suckers that will pop.
Once again low watt bulbs around here keep pumping this game token.
Buying BTC is easy, but selling? (Score:2)
I'm talking about sizable amounts: 5, 6 or 7 digits of USD. Not just the part about Btc exchanges, but getting the cash into a private citizen's bank account, in a western, regulated, country, without getting flagged as a criminal or money launderer
P.S. I am not in that fortunate position, but I see a lot about how to buy Btc and very little from individuals who have actually got a wad of cash in their hand from it. I am sure that every man and hi
Re:Buying BTC is easy, but selling? (Score:5, Informative)
Your question is answered and it is trivially easy. When you sell your bitcoin, if it was purchased as investment you fill out form 8949 via the Form 1040 Schedule D. If you mined, it's Form 1040 Schedule 1 âoeAdditional Income and Adjustments to Incomeâ on line 8 "Other income." Note if you are mining, you may be self-employed, for example if you want to claim expenses related to mining. You can also deduct if you used part of your home for mining operation.
https://www.irs.gov/individual... [irs.gov]
In any case, the bottom line is you pay your goddamn taxes on that "wad of cash in their hand from it", and all is fine. Common sense, really.
Same old same old (Score:2)
"It's a very different set of people who are buying Bitcoin recently,"
They're wearing suits, but they're no different than anyone else who is evading the government and taxation.
And who is making the statements about these "very different" people? It's people who are trying to get others to trust into crypto. That's who https://www.chainalysis.com/ [chainalysis.com] is.
Nothing is different here.
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"It's a very different set of people who are buying Bitcoin recently,"
They're wearing suits, but they're no different than anyone else who is evading the government and taxation.
I have just been reading the history of the 2008 financial crisis. It amazes me how reckless the grey-suited bankers could get when intoxicated by the smell of money. "Please, please, borrow some money. No paperwork. You don't even need a job." Or something like that.
Not like gold (Score:1)
I believe that the block chain currency ecosystem provides value. But I do not believe that Bitcoin specifically has the necessary similarities to something like gold to last in the long term.
My reasoning:
1. Cryptocurrencies tend to provide provable value to the degree they are traded
2. Cryptocurrencies are actually very easy to "print", and technical improvements can be made to new competitors
3. Gresham's law suggests that a "good enough" competitor to Bitcoin can cause a downward trend in Bitcoin tran
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Oh, goodie. Propaganda that take pages and pages to get to a point. I least it let's us know it will be drivel from the beginning with:
Have you ever heard a smart sounding friend say that they aren’t sure about bitcoin but they believe in blockchain technology? This is like saying you believe in airplanes but you’re not sure about the wings; and there’s a good chance that anyone who thinks that may not understand either.
That is a very dumb way to think about it. A smart person would realize it is like saying I believe in airplanes but I suspect certain specific triplane and biplane designs may not be the future.
Speculative does not mean fast twitchy trading (Score:1)
Bitcoin is now being fueled by a less speculative fever. Buyers -- led by American investors, including companies and other traditional investors -- are treating Bitcoin as an alternative asset, somewhat like gold, according to an analysis from the data firm Chainalysis. Rather than quickly trading in and out of it, ...
Speculative does not mean fast twitchy trading. Speculative can absolutely have a longer multiyear time horizon.
And Bitcoin is NOT somewhat like gold, that's evangelist BS. It has zero salvage value. Even a Tulip has more intrinsic value that a bitcoin.
... more investors are using Bitcoin as a place to park part of their investment portfolios outside the influence of governments and the traditional financial system, Chainalysis and other industry firms said.
OK now this firm just lost credibility, playing word games with "more". The institutional and casual investors are not trying to hide money. They are jut putting a small portion of their portfolio on a long shot. High risk but high reward. Long term specu
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A virtual commodity being like gold is not a good investment. Precious metals have been used for currency for thousands of years. That does not mean that using gold or silver as money is a particularly good way of doing business. It is superior to barter for practical reasons, but only if people agree on the value of it when trading. There is perhaps a point that precious metals are useful for currency, as a small amount of precious metal is worth a lot of money, which is just a matter of physical compactne
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So virtual currency like bitcoin can have some utility as a transfer vehicle, fiat X to fiat Y. Its a rival to P
Based on the frequency of Bitcoin stories on here (Score:3)
...it's a bubble.
"Less talk of a bubble" (Score:1)
Is it speculative or not? (Score:1)
Sounds like a safe investment.
So completely speculative.
Can we cut the shit? Investing in something that doesn't have or doesn't produce anything of intrinsic value is ridiculously speculative*. Investing in money, futures or cockroach races is gambling. Call it that. The people who make money are t
Asset (Score:2)
are treating Bitcoin as an alternative asset
So like we all keep saying, it's not a currency then. Currency is meant to be spent. Not an asset to hold on to. Calling it an asset is yet another admission that this stuff is nothing more than another housing market situation. Just like most people don't go around buying and selling things using houses as the unit of price measurement, cryptocurrency has no actual use.
Bitcoin casino: Trustdice.win (Score:1)
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